Weekly Market Analysis in the Cryptocurrency Circle (12.08)

Summary:

1. What does the weakening of domestic bulk commodities mean?

2. The U.S. interest rate cut and bond purchase plan on the 11th of this month, the options expiration on the 19th, and Japan's interest rate hike.

3. The peak before the 11th, the bottom after the 19th.

4. Where is the bottom for the dollar and the U price?

5. USDT.D, long-short ratio, heat clearing chart, greed index.

6. If you want to short this week, you need to be a bit aggressive with your entry points.

Operations:

1. $BTC short at 94777, take profit at 80600

2. $ETH short at 3240, take profit at 2620

3. $SOL short at 145.5, take profit at 121

4. Bitcoin long at 80000, add at 78500, take profit at 100300

5. Ethereum long at 2600, add at 2550, take profit at 3400

6. SOL long at 121, add at 118, take profit at 163.3

(If a short position can be established, keep the long position; if a long position is established directly before the short position, then cancel the short.)

Last week I hoped to establish a short position, but ultimately it didn't happen. The reason, I believe, is that the drop on Monday was too severe, preventing the subsequent rebound from reaching the expected height.

Regardless, the risk of directly shorting at the current price is still too high, especially since the weekly decline that started from 126000 has been running for 10 weeks, and typically a weekly decline lasts around 12 weeks. Therefore, I do have some requirements for shorting entry points.

Personally, I certainly hope to establish a short position, which would allow for an additional mid-term short. But even if I can't, I don't think it's a problem, because since February 2019, Bitcoin has not shown a monthly four consecutive negative candles for over 6 years. So as long as it remains in a bearish state this month, I believe it is an opportunity to gradually enter spot and long positions since I am strongly bullish for January/February.

Many people might find this counterintuitive, saying that it is a bear market, a bearish trend, and that one should short on the rebound.

However, left-side trading is inherently counterintuitive. Even if December creates a lower low, my primary consideration remains the entry of long positions, while the short positions are optional.