Weekly Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (12.14)

Summary:

1. The operational logic of precious metals

2. Including the Japanese interest rate hike, significant fluctuations are expected ahead of the quad witching day on the 19th.

3. The bottom is likely not on the 19th, but it is currently uncertain whether it will be a few days earlier or later.

4. The issue of liquidity

5. The short position in the medium term is not highly confident and needs to be hedged for capital preservation.

6. Regardless, next week or the week after, we still need to consider taking long positions.

Operations:

1. Holding short position at $BTC , take profit at 80600

2. Holding short position at $ETH , take profit at 2620

3. Holding short position at $SOL , take profit at 121

4. Placing a long order at 80000 for Bitcoin, buying more at 78500, take profit at 100300

5. Placing a long order at 2600 for Ethereum, buying more at 2550, take profit at 3446

6. Placing a long order at 118 for SOL, buying more at 115, take profit at 153.5

The short position is still in place, but my confidence in this short position is not as strong as the previous two trend positions. Everyone should manage their positions well during the trading process. After the floating profit of the Bitcoin short position exceeds 5000 points, switch to capital preservation.

The worst-case scenario is that the low point of 80600 from last month does not break, followed by a recovery to preserve capital. In that case, not only will the profit from the current short position be missed, but a significant portion of long position profits will also be lost.

However, considering that a weekly downward trend usually lasts for 12 weeks or even longer, I personally lean towards the belief that 80600 is not the bottom.

It is worth mentioning that Ethereum and SOL need to exit synchronously after Bitcoin breaks a new low. Therefore, if Bitcoin hits the take profit while Ethereum and SOL do not, manual take profit and manual long positions are required, along with canceling the pending orders.

Finally, SOL may potentially reach around 102, but this is just a possibility and does not mean it will definitely reach there. So, long positions must be well managed, and additional long positions can be placed around 102. Ethereum can also have some additional long positions placed around 2400, which may not necessarily hit, but if it does, there will definitely be a response.