Self-termination and comprehensive collapse: five reasons why Europe can never escape its tragic fate

If post-World War II Europe was a beacon reborn from the ruins, since the beginning of this century, Europe has more resembled a figure pushed to center stage, only able to deliver hollow lines, playing the role of a meaningless and awkward supporting character. Especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, along with the ongoing US-China trade war and tech war, and the intensification of financial decoupling among major powers, the global energy and industrial chains have been restructured. Europe has gradually degenerated from the so-called 'beacon of civilization' to a practice partner in the power games of major nations. Europe is no longer a participant in the reshaping of global strategy, but merely a victim of the reshuffling of the global geopolitical landscape. The great tragedy of Europe is now unavoidable.

The first blow comes from the self-termination of European energy. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused European countries to lose their cheapest and most stable supply of Russian natural gas in just two years. In 2024, Germany, Europe's largest industrial nation, saw its industrial electricity prices rise by nearly 50%, while the price of liquefied natural gas imported from the US was astonishingly more than 150% higher than that of Russian pipeline gas—yet all of this stemmed from the Europeans' willing choice. According to publicly available data, European energy procurement expenditures from the US are close to $120 billion in 2024, with predictions suggesting that by 2028 this figure could approach $250 billion. In other words, Europe has moved from breaking free of Russia's energy chains to being shackled by America's energy bonds in the blink of an eye, the only difference being that the methods Americans use to exploit are even more brutal. Orban and Fico are among the few clear-headed leaders in EU countries.

The second blow is the intractable resource scarcity. The upstream of the global high-tech industrial chain formed since the 2020s—rare earths, tungsten, gallium, germanium, and other key strategic materials—are controlled by China, which possesses over 60% of mining capabilities and 90% of processing capabilities. Although Europeans have long proclaimed the so-called 'Critical Raw Materials Act,' claiming to build a self-sufficient supply system, the fragmented EU cannot cope with the long cycles of over 10 years required for exploration, investment, and smelting in such industrial chains. The cruel reality is that Europe cannot bypass China in the short term, yet continues to shout the loudest about 'de-risking' while still having to obediently rely on it. This structural constraint between China and Europe means that Europe will always remain a passive 'buyer,' with no leverage under the strategic pressure from the US and China. At this point, does anyone still remember the 'China-Europe Investment Agreement' that was signed but voluntarily frozen by Europe? I don't think so, because today's Europe lacks even strategic visionaries like Merkel.

The third blow is the complete collapse of technological sovereignty. Europe has long claimed to seize 'digital sovereignty,' but in reality has remained highly dependent on American tech giants. 92% of Irish enterprises rely on American cloud services, while the figure for the UK is 88%, and even two-thirds of French companies, which call for 'digital autonomy' the loudest, cannot do without Microsoft and Google. In other words, once the Americans tighten technology exports, the entire European digital system will be left exposed. And this is not just a matter of industrial competition, but of national security. The EU's EuroStack initiative has a budget planned at over 300 billion euros; it looks ambitious, but the initiative has remained in the early stages of conceptual verification and project application, with funds available for construction simply not reaching the required levels. Europe's 'digital sovereignty' appears dazzling, but in reality, digital dependence is becoming increasingly severe.

The fourth blow is a major economic recession. The growth rates of European countries are lining up and falling behind hand in hand, because Europe cannot find new engines for strong economic growth for the future. The US maintains its momentum through technological innovation and energy independence, China advances more quickly thanks to its vast market and complete manufacturing chain, while Europe is being dragged down by an aging population, high energy costs, insufficient technological innovation, and a leadership group that is extremely incompetent. The Wall Street Journal has even bluntly stated that Europe has been left far behind by the US and China in cutting-edge competitive fields such as technology, growth, and space launches. The German manufacturing industry, centered on traditional automobile manufacturing, has fallen into substantial stagnation, another engine of Europe, France, is burdened with high debt and cannot find a remedy, while Italy resembles a financial ticking bomb. Europe's once splendid economic integration is now turning into a collective major recession.

The fifth blow is the complete deprivation of global discourse power. Former European Central Bank President Draghi's warning was resounding: 'Europe is merely an observer on the international stage.' The EU is internally divided in political opinions, with significant disparities between North and South, and East and West. In the past decade of US-China confrontation, Europe has lacked decisive influence, yet must pay the highest costs due to economic fluctuations. The most intolerable thing is that when the US wields the tariff stick, European manufacturing is the first to suffer; while China continues to push for various new technology upgrades, Europe's industrial chain is becoming increasingly marginalized; and the fighting nation Russia continues to exert pressure on the eastern front, exhausting Europe's military resources. The inevitable result is that Europe will become the most typical 'sacrificial victim' that bleeds without applause.

Therefore, connecting these clues allows one to see clearly that Europe is heading towards historic marginalization and fragmentation. Energy dependence on the US, resource constraints from China, security trapped by NATO, and severe political rifts within the EU mean that Europe is powerless to repair and construct a hegemonic system like the US, cannot achieve true strategic independence by relying on a vast market like China, and has no way to break through the iron curtain and deadlock through hard power like Russia. All of Europe's so-called 'strategic autonomy' can only remain in documents, declarations, and summit slogans; when it comes to reality, it is merely exploited, utilized, and ignored. These are the geopolitical tragedies that Europe cannot escape, with each link connected to another, forming a cascade effect, and in the great power game of this century, Europe is destined to be the biggest loser.

In the times ahead, Europe has neither technological advantages, nor resource advantages, nor population and market advantages. The only thing it can rely on is an illusion of community, but in the face of the successive depletion of the three major powers of the US, China, and Russia, Europe can only fight like a trapped beast in a narrow gap. It can be said that the Russia-Ukraine war is not the pinnacle of Europe's geopolitical disasters, but merely the beginning.