Has China started to cut off rare earth supplies? Japan plays the victim: "China's approval is 'choking' us..."

The situation Japan least wants to see is gradually becoming a reality. According to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun on December 7, citing multiple government officials, the process for Japanese companies to obtain export approvals in China has shown significant delays recently, taking much longer than before. The report links this phenomenon to the continuing deterioration of China-Japan relations since November 7, indicating that the Japanese government has begun to assess whether this is a retaliatory measure from China. In the view of the Japanese public, the slowdown in China's relevant export processes could impact its manufacturing system.

Especially against the backdrop of China previously implementing import controls on Japanese seafood, there is widespread vigilance regarding whether China will introduce further retaliatory measures. The delays in the export processes for key minerals like rare earths have particularly touched a sensitive nerve in Japanese industry. A Japanese government official admitted that there are indeed delays in the export approval of important minerals, but emphasized that "it is still too early to determine this as an active measure by China"; another official provided a more targeted interpretation, believing that "China is using rare earth exports to send pressure signals to Japan."

This concern is not unfounded. After the 2010 Diaoyu Islands incident, China imposed restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan, and the impact is still viewed by the Japanese industry as a "cautionary tale." A report released by Japan's Nomura Research Institute in November quantified the potential risks: if China continues its rare earth export restrictions to Japan for three months, Japan would suffer an economic loss of 660 billion yen; if the restriction period extends to a year, the loss scale would soar to 2.6 trillion yen, potentially paralyzing pillar industries such as automobiles and electronics.

More critically, Japan has attempted to expand alternative import channels from Australia, Vietnam, India, and other regions, but the rare earth refining processes in these areas still heavily rely on Chinese equipment and technology. This structural dependence means that any disruption in the supply chain will trigger a chain reaction, with impacts far exceeding those of previous seafood import restrictions. It is worth mentioning that recently, Japan has also been hyping the rhetoric that "China may interfere with the rare earth development of Minami-Torishima." In fact, the "story" of rare earth resources in Minami-Torishima has been told for over a decade—back in 2012, Japan claimed that massive rare earth mines were discovered in the surrounding waters of the island, hoping to solve the supply chain dilemma, but it has remained at the stage of public relations hype for years, with no substantial mining actions observed.

Japan originally planned to start trial mining in 2024, but later postponed it to 2026. The core reason for the prolonged inaction is fundamentally due to insurmountable technological bottlenecks, economic costs that do not justify the benefits, and unbearable international public opinion pressure, which has nothing to do with China. Now, Japan's side using "China's obstruction" as an excuse is merely to divert domestic conflicts and cover up its own shortcomings in resource development capabilities.

The root cause of the current China-Japan rare earth export dispute is not the "uncertainty" of China's export policy, but rather the chain reaction triggered by the erroneous remarks of Japanese politician Sanae Takaichi. For Japan, if it truly values supply chain security, it must recognize a basic fact: as long as China-Japan relations do not improve, the costs that Japan will have to bear will only increase, and this time, the United States is unwilling and unable to help Japan.