Core views
Current price: $3,111 (as of December 8, 09:31)
Short-term outlook: Short-term bias is bullish. A MACD golden cross has formed on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with RSI in a neutral to slightly bullish range (57.87). The price remains above the EMA moving average system, indicating a bullish momentum in the short term. However, the daily level is still constrained by SMA50 ($3,354) and SMA200 ($3,542), and the medium-term downward trend has not been completely reversed. On-chain data shows continuous net outflows and whales positioning around $3,000, providing support for the upward movement.
Key support:
Recent support: $3,065 (Bollinger Band lower limit + EMA26)
Secondary support: $3,047 (SMA50)
Strong support zone: $2,965-$2,971 (multi-level Bollinger Band lower band, liquidation concentration zone)
Key resistance:
Recent resistance: $3,153-$3,174 (Bollinger Band upper band)
Important resistance: $3,187 (dense short liquidation zone, accumulated $650 million)
Options magnetic point: $3,100 (maximum pain point for options expiring on December 12)
Technical analysis
Multi-period price patterns
1-hour level: Price is running between the upper Bollinger Band ($3,065-$3,153), above EMA12 ($3,076) and EMA26 ($3,064), with a short-term uptrend. The MACD line (11.88) is above the signal line (9.03), and the histogram is positive (2.85), forming a bullish crossover. The RSI is at 57.87, not in the overbought zone, leaving room for further upward movement.
4-hour level: Price is oscillating between the middle Bollinger Band ($3,072) and the upper band ($3,174), gaining support after testing SMA50 ($3,024). The MACD maintains a golden cross state (6.64>5.17), and the histogram expands (1.47), continuing a mild bullish momentum. The RSI is at 56.17, within a balanced range.
Daily level: Price broke through the middle Bollinger Band ($2,975) but was resisted by EMA26 ($3,111) and SMA50 ($3,354), indicating that the daily level is still in a descending channel. Although the MACD has shown a bottom divergence (the histogram expanded from -109 to 44.41), the main line remains negative (-65.48), and it needs to be observed whether it can effectively turn positive. The RSI is at 49.76, neutral and slightly weak.
Key technical levels
Derivatives market
Open interest: Total $3.738 billion, 24-hour growth of 3.4%, market participation has increased, and volatility may amplify.
Funding rate: Binance (0.002225%) and HTX (0.0083%) are positive, indicating long positions paying short rates; Bybit (-0.0032%) is negative, implying short covering pressure. Overall, the long-short battle is intense, with no clear advantage.
Liquidation risk: Accumulated $796 million long liquidation risk below $3,000 and accumulated $650 million short liquidation risk above $3,187. The current price is situated between two major liquidation concentration zones; a breakout in either direction may trigger a chain liquidation, leading to accelerated market movements.
Options market: Open interest $10.85 billion, 24-hour trading volume surged by 101.5%. The maximum pain point for options expiring on December 12 is $3,100, and prices may approach this level before expiration. Deribit holds 68.49% market share, with significantly increased activity.
On-chain data analysis
Exchange liquidity
Net outflow trend:
December 7: -3,480 ETH
December 6: -9,963 ETH
December 4: -6,463 ETH
December 3: -30,628 ETH
December 1: -29,868 ETH
In the last 7 days, apart from small net inflows on December 2 and 5, the rest were all net outflows, totaling over 100,000 ETH, indicating that holdings are shifting from exchanges to cold wallets, and holders tend to hoard rather than trade.
Exchange reserves: Decreased from 16,673,282 ETH on December 5 to 16,659,838 ETH on December 7, reducing by approximately 13,444 ETH. The decline in reserves is consistent with the net outflow trend, easing selling pressure.
Whale movements
Large holdings: On December 8, address 0xb317...3ae held 54,277 ETH (approximately $165 million, average price $3,048), with an unrealized loss of $294,000. This whale set a limit buy order of 20,000 ETH (approximately $60 million) at $3,000, indicating bullish confidence and an intention to increase positions during a pullback.
Staking transfers: On December 5, an anonymous address transferred 23,999 ETH to Everstake's staking service, reflecting long-term holding intentions and reducing circulating supply.
Network activity
Active address changes:
December 6: 427,432
December 5: 519,827
December 4: 577,584
December 3: 634,505 (peak)
Active addresses increased from 497,930 on November 30 to 634,000 on December 3, before falling back to 427,000. The peak period coincided with a price rebound, indicating that short-term speculative sentiment rose before stabilizing.
Ecosystem TVL
The total locked value (TVL) of the Ethereum chain is $70.14 billion, with a solid ecological foundation supporting long-term value.
Market sentiment and news
Positive factors
Institutional movements: Bank of America plans to allow financial advisors to recommend ETH to clients starting January 5, 2026, marking an increase in acceptance by mainstream financial institutions. Lamborghini's U.S. dealers accept ETH payments, and Bolivia is integrating ETH into its national financial system, expanding application scenarios.
Regulatory progress: Japan has classified ETH as a financial product, and regulatory clarification helps attract global capital.
Technical upgrade: The Fusaka upgrade was activated on December 3, introducing PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), achieving 8x L2 scalability, and raising the gas limit to 60 million, with transaction processing capability reaching 16.7 million gas. Vitalik Buterin called it a fundamental breakthrough in sharding design since 2015 and plans to further optimize L1 scaling through ZK-EVM.
On-chain funds: The net inflow of spot ETH ETF from December 2-8 was $312.6 million, the first positive change since late October, indicating a recovery in institutional allocation demand.
Community views
Core developers: Vitalik emphasizes that the Fusaka upgrade enhances execution, consensus, and data availability, supporting a significant increase in Rollup throughput. He proposes establishing an on-chain gas futures market to hedge future cost risks, believing that BAL, ePBS, and ZK-EVM will maintain low gas costs.
Opinion leaders: Anthony Sassano (sassal0x) refuted outdated ETH FUD arguments, pointing out that 29 upgrades and releases have been launched in the ecosystem over the past month, with strong developmental momentum. He emphasized the L2 ecosystem report and the EIP verification scaling progress that has gone live with Fusaka.
Neutrality and risk: Some technical analysis predictions indicate downside risks; forex24.pro provided a bearish expectation below $1,745 on December 5, and Bitazza's weekly report pointed to support at $2,600/resistance at $3,050, but these views have not gained widespread consensus.
Comprehensive assessment
Short-term strategy: Technical indicators in the 1-4 hour level are bullish; if the price stabilizes above $3,100 and a MACD golden cross forms, light positions can be taken in the $3,065-$3,100 range, targeting resistance at $3,150-$3,174, with stop-loss set below $3,047. If it effectively breaks through $3,174 and stabilizes, it may look towards the $3,187 dense short liquidation zone.
Risk warning: The daily level is still under MA pressure; if it breaks below the $3,065 support, caution is needed for a pullback risk to the strong support zone of $2,965-$2,971. The maximum pain point for options at $3,100 may create a magnetic effect on prices, and volatility may intensify as the expiration date (December 12) approaches.
Neutral observation range: $3,065-$3,150 is the current main oscillation range; the breakout direction determines the subsequent trend. Given the on-chain net outflow, whale bottom fishing, and positive signals from ETF approvals, the probability of breaking upward is slightly higher, but close attention is needed to whether the resistance band of $3,174-$3,187 can be absorbed.
