Last month I received a message from a friend in the circle: "Teacher, I went from over 300,000 USDT to only 10,000 USDT, and now looking at the K-line makes my hands shake. I want to delete the software but feel unwilling..." I didn't comfort him, but instead scolded him: "This isn't a dead end, it’s deserved for treating 'emergency funds' like 'gambling capital'!" As a result, five months later, he sent a screenshot: account 150,000 USDT, with a note saying, "You were right to scold me back then."
After ten years of cryptanalysis, I have seen too many people who are "desperate after liquidation", but 90% of people fail not because of the market, but because they turned "trading" into "gambling on size". Just like this friend from the circle, I asked him to stop trading for a week and review his trading records. The conclusion was heartbreaking yet true: chasing highs and lows like a headless fly, full margin gambling mentality, losing and stubbornly enduring to become a "token shareholder". Are you also suffering from these "common ailments of retail investors"?
First break, then establish: two 'life-saving rules' lock down the risk gate
I didn’t let him rush to open a position; instead, I first established two rules of 'dare to break, then cut hands':
Single trade loss not exceeding 5%: Before each trade, first calculate the 'worst-case scenario', for example, entering with 500 U, losing 25 U means exiting immediately. Don’t think '5% is too little to make money' — you should first think 'how much loss could be fatal', if 10,000 U loses 20% each time, it would be zero after 5 times, but a 5% stop-loss allows you to still have capital left after being wrong 19 times, this is the confidence of 'leaving the green mountains'.
Stop trading immediately if a single-day loss reaches 10%: When the market is bad, people easily 'want to fish for losses more as they lose', resulting in a 'open position - stop-loss - reopen position' death cycle. I had him set an alarm; as soon as the account drops 10% in a single day, immediately lock the position, close the software, and go downstairs to run five kilometers — using physical means to interrupt 'emotional trading' is more effective than any 'self-control'.
Precise strike: mainstream + potential dual-track strategy, profit steadily without greed
Stop-loss is 'defense', opening a position is 'offense', but offense must never be reckless:
Mainstream leaders only focus on 'key positions': do not chase those skyrocketing hot spots, just focus on the support and resistance levels of the two major mainstream coins. For example, if a certain mainstream coin is consolidating at the 20,000 threshold for half a month, wait for it to stabilize before entering the market, setting a stop-loss 1.5% below the threshold — if it breaks, accept the loss; if it doesn't break, hold on, and when profits reach 5%, withdraw the principal, letting the remaining profits fluctuate as they wish. This strategy is called 'using profits to gamble, capital is always safe', and friends who have tried it all say 'I can sleep soundly'.
Potential track coins 'diversify + data screening': take 2,000 U and split it into three parts, investing in three 'signal' potential coins, but never invest blindly! Must meet two hard conditions: first, on-chain data shows that large holders have not reduced their positions; second, the stock of exchanges is continuously decreasing — this indicates that chips are concentrating in the hands of a few, increasing the probability of a subsequent rally by 10 times compared to 'buying by feeling'. Remember, small coins are 'just icing on the cake', not a 'lifeline to recover losses', so at most only invest 20% of your capital.
In fact, in the crypto circle, 10,000 U has never been a dead end; the real dead end is the obsession with 'hurrying to recover losses'. I’ve seen someone turn 10,000 U into 100,000 U in three months, and I’ve seen someone take 100,000 U down to only 3,000 U in a month — the difference is not in the amount of capital, but in whether you treat trading as a 'business' or a 'gamble'.
Lastly, let me tell everyone a hard truth: the cryptocurrency circle is not about who earns the most in the short term, but who can last the longest. Just like the old leeks turning into old masters, it’s not about 'bottom fishing skills', but knowing 'when to hit the brakes, never step on the gas'. Next time, don’t ask 'how to quickly recover 10,000 U', first ask yourself 'can I avoid losing' — achieving this, you’ve already surpassed 80% of people.
Follow me, in the next episode we will analyze 'how to read on-chain data to avoid pitfalls', teaching you to find opportunities to 'wait for appreciation' from dull numbers. After all, in this circle, knowing the methods is more important than having capital, don’t you think?
