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The most disastrous year since the self-encrypting genesis, 2025.
#比特币VS代币化黄金  

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加密散户在牛市阶段有个很大的困境，而且这个困境已经大到不是简单亏钱两个字能概括的，是一种自下而上的无力感。困境在于，很多散户投资者的大方向没看错，却赚不到钱。很多散户其实方向上是对的，看多 BTC / ETH，看好多条主流公链，看好 AI / L2 / DeFi 这些长期赛道，但当BTC、SOL、主流大盘涨了一大截，自己的账户金额不仅没变还可能缩水。明明在车上没有踏空趋势，但是几乎没有任何盈利。散户的对手现在是VC、团队、机器人，系统化的撸毛工作室，早期轮、做市商、团队筹码轮不到散户，交易端有量化做市、MEV bot，散户下单时已经到了信息和速度的最末端。以前还能靠一套粗糙节奏活着，减半然后BTC 牛市，再到山寨季然后慢慢回调，这一轮大部分散户的体会基本上是，明明是牛市的一部分，我的整体资产和熊市没什么区别。于是现在还在坚持的散户普遍处在一种很尴尬的中间态： -又不甘心只拿 BTC、ETH -又没有时间精力算法去当科学家 -也不想当纯赌狗去赌VC和MEME币现在的加密散户急需一场漂亮的翻身仗，找到下一个BTC、ETH共识，或者索性抱死BTC大腿永远不去理会其他财富效应。 #美联储降息

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还是很精准的，2025年所有降息后的短期，无论鹰还是鸽，市场都是在快速回调。 #美联储降息

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CZ和多位金融界大佬纷纷表示比特币四年周期被打破， 2026年，牛市和山寨季真的会来吗？ $AXL $CFX $XAI #加密市场反弹

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$ONDO 最大的利空出尽了，SEC调查了ONDO两年并且没有提出任何指控。布局的时刻来了吗？ #加密市场反弹

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几个看似不起眼但是非常好用的牛回判断细节 1.当市场上出现明显的坏消息（如监管收紧、宏观数据不及预期、大型机构暴雷等），价格仅仅是象征性地跌了一下，然后迅速收回跌幅。说明场内的空头力量已经枯竭，该割肉的都割完了，剩下的持有者都是死多头，无论出什么坏消息都不会卖。 2.OTC溢价率的悄然上升，老韭菜都知道，如果U价突然上涨但是行情未动，说明入金的人多于出金的人，买方力量越来越强。 3.垃圾资产或者Meme突然爆发导致的踏空情绪飙升牛回前的特征之一是资金的傲慢和谨慎，一旦踏空散户会一致把目光放到那些尚未显著上涨的高波动标的中去。 4.交易所的插针方向改变熊市中大部分行情走势都是向上插针套牢多头，但牛回前夕K线经常出现频繁的向下去多头杠杆插针，并且是在没有任何利空事件的情况下。 #加密市场反弹

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