Still very accurate, in the short term after the interest rate cuts in 2025,

The most important macro event of this year is approaching, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10),

Although the outcome has already been revealed, the real market game has just begun.

The market now generally expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price in.

How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divisions and expectations for next year's direction.

The internal divisions this time may be more intense than imagined, and the opposition's forced compromise does not equal a unanimous rate cut, at least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. The opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity; a disunited rate cut is not necessarily a positive for the crypto space.

Powell is highly likely to implement this 25bp cut, but he certainly does not dare to appear too relaxed in front of the public. He must use more severe language to manage future rate cut expectations, or clearly tell the market that there will be no autopilot mode for rate cuts in the future, and the entire meeting will be packaged as an extremely cautious risk management action.

A rate cut is dovish, but the not-so-obvious dovishness leads to a volatile market for crypto. The risk market hopes to see a certain new cycle, but the Federal Reserve and Powell are actually exacerbating future uncertainties while treating each meeting and dot plot release as a one-time action,

resulting in a high probability that each rate cut (including next year) will lead to a market trend that initially rises due to positive expectations, followed by volatile retraction.

If you have enough experience, you can tentatively short $BTC or $ETH in the few hours after the rate cut.

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