This week in the market is all about one thing: everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve at 3 AM on the 11th. First of all, a rate cut is basically a done deal, and there's no suspense about that. The key question is whether they dare to signal a softer stance on the rate cut expectations for next year.
If they continue to act hawkish, then be prepared for a collective sell-off. If they dare to follow Trump's lead and soften their tone, then there might be a breather. Because I don't believe a word of the forward guidance these people provide.
Just remember the scene at the end of last year: the market sentiment was already good around Christmas. Trump won the election, and the rate cut was finalized. But then, Powell gave a showy speech that crushed the rate cut expectations to just two times this year.
The market was directly beaten down, and what happened? This year, they actually cut rates four times, which says what? It shows that all the plans from these old wallflowers are just to fool retail investors. When real trouble arises, they are the most cowardly of all.
It's the same now; the dot plot is just a bunch of nonsense to me. If they say they want to maintain inflation, then they are preparing to crush the U.S. economy, most likely leading to a recession. If they want to protect the economy, then they can only cut rates faster and harder; inflation is just a smokescreen.
No matter how tough they talk, their actions reveal the truth. Once the new Federal Reserve chair takes office, it will only move closer to Trump's rhythm. A real rate cut path is bound to come eventually, but this December meeting is destined to be torturous.
