The bear market has begun. No one dares to refute this now, but it has only fallen for a month, and it's so harsh that I am directly confused. If the bear market really lasts for a year, does that mean it will eventually go to zero?
What makes me more alert is the long-short ratio, which is terrifyingly high. This indicates that a bunch of people are still busy bottom-fishing. Honestly, I would rather wait until the trend is completely clear before taking action than become a bag holder.
I firmly hold a bearish view; it is definitely not a random guess. First, the four-year cycle has completely ended, with daily, weekly, and monthly lines all broken. The trend is weak beyond measure; this is the hardest signal. Secondly, more contradictorily, even though the market is in such a panic, the funding rate of BTC and ETH perpetual contracts is still positive, and the bulls unexpectedly still dominate. This bubble has not been fully squeezed out.
Speaking of BTC, when it broke below $100,000, the rebound was as weak as if it hadn't eaten. It still hasn't climbed back above $100,000. This momentum does not look like a reversal at all. There’s also a big thunder; the US may attack Venezuela, and there might be major powers involved behind the scenes. If a war really breaks out, who would dare to enter the high-risk market? Big funds are all watching; why should we small retail investors rush in?
What bothers me the most is social media; there are still a bunch of people shouting for bottom-fishing opportunities. Historically, how many times has extreme panic led to small rebounds before falling back into the abyss? The reversal signal in my heart is very clear. No one is shouting to bottom-fish anymore. The volume of ETH perpetual contracts is lower than that of BTC, and with the mainstream spot trading volume continuously bottoming out, that's when it would be worth betting on a small rebound.
At this position, if you really want to enter the market, you can only try small positions in spot trading. The stop-loss line must be set firmly. In case of extreme declines, those coin and stock companies may be forced to liquidate, and in a stampede, you simply cannot escape. There's a particularly heart-wrenching detail: after October 11, liquidity has been decreasing. New entrants are all withdrawing; funds are only flowing out, not in. There’s no hope for a short-term recovery.
Trading is too exhausting now. I want to bottom-fish but fear being trapped; I want to short but fear missing out. But the more chaotic it gets, the more discipline you must maintain. Don’t let FOMO emotions lead you astray. Until the trend reverses, waiting is the best strategy. As long as those voices shouting for bottom-fishing haven't disappeared, we can just safely be bystanders. Preserving capital is more important than anything else. @阿二说币
