The direction of the cryptocurrency market has long changed, but too many people are still immersed in the illusion of the 'hundred-fold myth' and are unwilling to wake up. Now, various 'potential coins' and 'comeback coins' praised by the community, I dare to say: by this time next year, it is highly likely that there won't even be trading pairs to find - it's not a gentle drop of 50%, but rather a direct 'evaporation' from the market, completely exiting circulation.
Don't think I'm being alarmist; this is not a subjective assumption, but the inevitable result of cyclical rules + dramatic changes in market structure.
Core takeaway: Why can’t the current altcoins even find the bottom of the bear market?
First, look at the cycle anchor point: there are only about 880 days left until the next round of core industry cycle nodes. Looking back at the three complete cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time point should be the stage for the bear market to bottom out, but this year's situation is completely different—mainstream assets are supported by institutional funds and compliant tools, while the bottom of altcoins has long turned into a 'bottomless pit'.
The key issue lies in the complete overhaul of market discourse power:
In the early years, the project parties had the final say: financing, listing, and market manipulation were all under their control, at least there was motivation to maintain prices;
In the medium term, it is led by market makers: leveraging capital advantages to regulate liquidity, though there is harvesting, it can still maintain a superficial prosperity;
Now the platform is fully controlled: the primary and secondary trading channels are firmly in control, and the project parties have completely become 'laborers'—with neither sufficient funds to protect the market nor the motivation to invest energy, after all, if they can't make money and still bear risks, it's better to take cash and leave.
Recently, I have monitored a shocking phenomenon: many altcoin project parties are quietly 'dumping' their own tokens, with discounts as low as 40% to 60%. Even the issuers are fleeing, how can you expect it to rise against the trend? This is not faith, it is pure blindness.
What's even harsher is the operation of market-making institutions: on one hand, quietly absorbing low-priced circulating chips amid market panic, while on the other hand, locking in risks and taking countermeasures through hedging tools. The occasional rebound of altcoins in the market is not a reversal signal at all, but a pretense of their 'golden cicada shedding its shell'—waiting for retail investors to rush in to take over, marking a new round of deep dives.
Ultimate conclusion: Only these two types of coins can survive in the future.
After this round of systemic cleansing, the concentration in the crypto market will become increasingly high; the once shouted 'decentralization' has long become an outdated marketing slogan. Don’t keep believing in the old logic that 'holding altcoins long-term will lead to a comeback'; the current crypto circle is essentially a resource game, and the 'three-no altcoins' without background, funds, and ecosystem have no survival space at all.
Only two types of assets can transcend cycles:
Mainstream core assets favored by compliance and capital: backed by institutional funds, supported by compliant tools, and risk resistance is not something that altcoins can compare with;
Ecological assets deeply bound to leading platforms: relying on the platform's traffic, funds, and scenarios, at least they won't be easily eliminated, and there’s a chance to benefit from ecological development.
As for the remaining altcoins, either they will exit directly in this round of clearing, or they will become 'dumping tools' in the next short-term market, used to harvest the last wave of retail investors' fantasies of getting rich.
Finally, a reminder: there might be 'temptation traps' in November and December, don't fall into the pit!
I predict that the market may see short-term impulsive trends in November and December, and some altcoins may experience a wave of short squeezes, but this is definitely not a signal to enter; rather, it could be 'the last supper'. The subsequent downturn of altcoins will only be more severe than you can imagine.
For prudent investors, what you should do now is not to look for 'dark horses' everywhere but to retract your lines—focus on mainstream core assets and high-quality platform ecosystem assets, and stay away from those altcoin speculations that can’t even write a clear white paper.
To end on a practical note:
In the crypto circle over the years, I have seen too many people earn money by luck, only to lose it back through their own abilities. Those who can truly survive and still make profits are never the ones who dare the most to gamble, but the ones who discern direction before taking action.
The market will not show mercy because of your 'faith'; only by recognizing reality and respecting cycles can you go further in the crypto market. If you find what I said to be practical, please follow me, and I will continue to update cycle monitoring data and asset screening logic to help you avoid zeroing out and hold onto true value. After all, in the crypto circle, surviving is the only way to wait for the next wave of opportunities!
