浩永说币

Who would have thought that the Federal Reserve actually played an 'emergency add-on' — at 2 AM Beijing time today, they suddenly held a closed-door meeting, and made a decision in just one hour! This is a 'crisis-level operation' that hasn't been seen in 40 years, global capital has directly exploded, and the crypto market is even more on high alert overnight; tonight, no one can stay out of it!
As a veteran who has been watching the market for 8 years, I have to say that these four unusual signals hide too many mysteries:
First of all, the interest rate cut game has already escalated to a 'white-hot' level! The two factions of 50 basis points and 75 basis points have torn apart directly, with disagreements unprecedentedly large, and the market has split into two halves; this is not a usual operation; secondly, the smart money of 29.4 billion USD has long been ambushed, and larger-scale liquidity support is still brewing, their sense of smell is sharper than a dog's nose; more importantly, after two consecutive closed-door meetings, the alarms in the repurchase market have been sounded, institutions are adjusting their positions overnight, clearly sensing the taste of a 'big change'; finally, the 'one-hour decision' thing is definitely not a whim, it is clearly a signal to respond to systemic risks, and the logic behind it is worth everyone's vigilance!

Family, who understands this! Recently, a piece of news from outside the crypto circle made me stay up all night analyzing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet for 3 months, with U.S. bank reserves breaking below the $30 trillion mark for the first time! As an old analyst who has monitored liquidity data for 8 years, I can confidently say that this event will impact the crypto market more than the collapse of 10 altcoins. Newbies, don't panic and don't get overly excited; let me break it down for you!
First, let me translate the core logic into plain language: Powell's recent "Quantitative Tightening (QT)" is essentially the Federal Reserve "sucking out liquidity," pulling back all the idle money in the market. I'm telling you, this is no small matter; the amount of "liquid money" in the market has become ridiculously low, and the cost of borrowing is skyrocketing. This is a downright "headwind" for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Three years ago, I entered the crypto space with 5000 yuan, unable to distinguish between mainstream and niche coins, only focused on the words 'skyrocketing.' Seeing someone in the community shout, 'XX coin doubles in three days,' I immediately followed the trend, only to see a crash right after buying; hearing about a well-known coin that was guaranteed to profit, I poured in all my savings, but ended up facing an epic plunge, reducing my tens of thousands in capital to just a fraction. During that time, even eating instant noodles felt extravagant. ​
Looking back now, my past self was a typical 'retail investor' — chasing highs and selling low based purely on feelings, trying to buy at the bottom but ending up halfway up the hill, cutting losses at the lowest point, treating crypto trading like a casino. After stepping into all the pitfalls, I finally grasped the ins and outs, transforming from a panicking novice into a trader with a steady mindset. Today, I'm sharing the hard-earned experiences bought with real money, hoping that new friends can at least save tens of thousands!​

The direction of the cryptocurrency market has long changed, but too many people are still immersed in the illusion of the 'hundred-fold myth' and are unwilling to wake up. Now, various 'potential coins' and 'comeback coins' praised by the community, I dare to say: by this time next year, it is highly likely that there won't even be trading pairs to find - it's not a gentle drop of 50%, but rather a direct 'evaporation' from the market, completely exiting circulation.​
Don't think I'm being alarmist; this is not a subjective assumption, but the inevitable result of cyclical rules + dramatic changes in market structure. ​
Core takeaway: Why can’t the current altcoins even find the bottom of the bear market?​

Twelve years ago, when I first entered the crypto space, I criticized the 'four-year cycle' as self-brainwashing by the old-timers—until this wave from six figures plummeting to five figures made me realize that cycles are not just stories; they are patterns built with real money.
Recently, the backend has been flooded with questions like 'Is the bull market not over, or has the bear market arrived?' Today, I won't beat around the bush and will directly share my honest thoughts: this wave is not a correction; it's the bear market knocking at the door.
Let's get straight to the point. I've been watching these signals for eight years and have never missed: first, the frenzy of speculative stocks is a doomsday alarm. The small stocks that doubled in a single day in May 2021 and the obscure coins that were partying in the 110,000 range at the beginning of the month were identical—it's the last madness of the bull market; it is always 'fools celebrating while smart people run away.' At that time, I shouted in the community to 'quickly reduce positions' and was ridiculed as an 'outdated person who doesn't understand the market.' What happened? Nearly 20 billion dollars in high-leverage contracts were liquidated across the network, equivalent to flushing all this year's gains down the drain. Those who chased the highs now probably can't even find a place to cry.

Last Wednesday morning, when the mobile banking app popped up the deposit notification, I was staring blankly at the K-line chart on my computer screen—320,000, not an astronomical figure in the cryptocurrency world, but the 'cognitive realization' I earned after 8 springs and autumns in Hangzhou, along with a receding hairline, chronic gastritis from staying up late, and countless sleepless nights.
When I entered in 2016 with 5,000 'initial chips', I was still a naive rookie who couldn't even distinguish between K-lines and moving averages. Some people doubled their investments with insider information in the short term, while others became overnight millionaires through leveraged speculation. I chose the most 'foolish' path: not chasing trends, not touching contracts, and not believing in so-called 'gurus' leading trades. Over four years, the leap from 5,000 to 1,200,000 was not due to luck, but the result of getting back up after numerous liquidations, analyzing hundreds of trading records every day, and firmly resisting the urge to follow the crowd during market craziness— the cruel truth in the cryptocurrency world is that those who survive are never the best at predicting ups and downs, but the best at controlling themselves.

Do you always feel that making big money in cryptocurrency trading requires understanding advanced contract techniques, catching insider information, or even having extraordinary luck? That's a huge misconception! As someone who has been navigating the crypto space for 8 years, I've seen too many ups and downs to realize: the simpler the logic, the more money you can make in the long run. Most people don't lose due to insufficient skills, but because they can't endure until the day of 'quantitative change to qualitative change', getting sidetracked by market emotions along the way.
The essence of trading cryptocurrencies is 'market cycles + human behavior repetition'. I've seen too many beginners fall into the same traps, and the core reason is that they haven't understood the market's 'subtext'—those seemingly complex candlestick patterns are actually quietly revealing the true intentions of capital.

At the end of my entrepreneurship in 2016, I only had 50,000 yuan left in my pocket. In front of the screen of a compliant digital asset trading platform, I squatted for a full seven days, smoked two or three packs of cigarettes, and was more nervous than when checking my college entrance exam scores—this was my last chance to turn things around. After grinding my molars, I went all in, acquiring 8 Bitcoins at an average price just above 6,000 yuan.
The 2017 bull market came unexpectedly, with Bitcoin skyrocketing 17 times throughout the year. When my account balance surged to 800,000, I couldn't sleep for three days. I stared at the candlestick charts in the middle of the night, grinning foolishly, already thinking about what type of house to buy by the seaside after retirement, believing that financial freedom was just one step away.

As a veteran in the crypto market with 8 years of experience, having stepped on countless scythes and gone from losses to gains, I’m sharing a set of 'Newcomer Lifesaving Guidelines' from the bottom of my heart today—these are not vague theories, but practical insights earned from real money. Understanding these can help you avoid 80% of the pitfalls!
The market is always 'against human nature': don't rush in when the crowd is loud, and only hide opportunities when it's quiet. Those straight-up surges in price look tempting but are all traps. I've seen too many newcomers chase in at the highest point, only to get trapped that same day. On the contrary, sideways consolidation or slow pullbacks are the golden windows for slowly building positions. The main force is quietly accumulating, and following the rhythm is definitely the right move.

Last week, the backend received a heartbreaking message: the fan's brother's account only has 3000U left. Previously, he followed the trend to invest in contracts and chase hot topics, and ended up losing 50,000 U down to only a fraction. The original words were, 'If I lose more, I'll have to uninstall the software and go work in a factory screwing bolts.'
I didn't rush him to 'make back his losses'; instead, I first poured a bucket of cold water on him: the crypto market is not a casino. It's more important to understand the underlying logic before taking action than blindly following trends to make 10 times the profit! Those who shout 'bet it all to get rich' every day are most likely waiting to cut your leeks. Today, I am sharing 6 practical strategies + 3 survival rules. Whether you are a 'vulnerable player' left with only your underwear or a newbie just entering the field, following this advice can help you avoid at least 80% of the pitfalls!

Who hasn’t fantasized about turning the tables in a downturn with contracts? Back when I entered the market with 2,000 yuan, my mind was full of the obsession, 'If others can double overnight, why can’t I?' Looking back now, I realize that I was essentially jumping barefoot into a pit of fire.
How absurd were my operations when I first entered the circle? Full position rush, no stop-loss, bear losses and just endure. After blowing up my account, my first reaction was not to reflect, but to think, 'Let me gather some more money; I can definitely make it back in the next order.' The result was that my capital fell like a sandglass pressed with a fast-forward button, dropping from 2,000 to a few hundred in just two months. It was only when I looked at my account balance that I suddenly awoke: this wasn’t bad luck; it was pure self-destructive trading!

I have seen too many people rush into the crypto market with the hope of 'getting rich overnight', resulting in losing all their capital or accumulating heavy debts. As a seasoned crypto analyst, I just want to say: the real winners in the crypto circle are never gamblers, but 'hunters who know when to hit the brakes'.
I am not a wealthy household; when I started, I only had 2000 basic units. Now my account has steadily reached the million level. Without insider information, without encountering black swan events, and without relying on so-called 'mystical trading', I relied solely on 3 'anti-humanity' simple methods to gradually grow my wealth.

As an old player in the crypto market who has been watching for 8 years, experienced countless pitfalls, and transitioned from loss to profit, today I am sharing a set of 'Newbie Survival Guidelines' from the bottom of my heart—it's not empty theory, but practical insights gained from real money spent, understanding which can help you avoid 80% of the traps!
The market is always 'against human nature': when it’s bustling, don’t rush in; when it’s quiet, that’s when opportunities lie. Those straight surges that seem enticing are actually traps; I’ve seen too many newbies chase at the highest point, only to get stuck that same day. In contrast, the phases of sideways consolidation or slow pullbacks are the golden windows for gradually building positions, as the main players are quietly accumulating shares, and following the rhythm is definitely the right approach.

Don't swipe away! It's not chicken soup, it's the heartfelt, practical advice I've gained from stepping into the pit of liquidation 3 times and avoiding pitfalls with 50+ new traders — the crypto world is never short of opportunities to turn 10,000 into 1,000,000, but what it lacks is a safe approach of 'not being greedy and avoiding pitfalls'!
Many people tremble at the mention of 'rolling positions', thinking = liquidation? That's a huge misunderstanding! I've seen too many lose all their capital; it’s never about leverage, but rather about a heated mind: heavily invested with 5-10 times high leverage + no stop-loss, this is not investing, it's just giving money to the exchange!
As someone who has monitored the market for 8 years, I always emphasize: the core of rolling positions is 'using profits to bet on profits', not betting on wins or losses with capital! True safe rolling positions require low leverage, controlled positions, and waiting for signals, which beginners can completely master.

‘If I had known, I should have held on for one more day’ ‘Just sold and then it skyrocketed, am I being targeted by the market?’
Every time a big market event occurs, the backend can be flooded with 99+ of this kind of wailing. As an old hand who has been in the crypto market for 8 years, I have a more heartbreaking screenshot saved on my phone: a certain mainstream coin that was liquidated at 0.1 dollars three years ago has now increased in price by 30 times. That increasingly sharp upward line is even more sobering than my gym coach's whip.
To be honest, the most miserable people in a bull market are never those who didn’t get on the train, but those emotional 'retail investors' who 'get thrown off as soon as they board, and then chase the high after being thrown off.' I've seen someone panic and cut losses at three in the morning because of a big downward line, only to see a rebound at dawn; I've also seen someone feel smug leaving after making 10 points, only to turn around and find that they missed out on a six-figure profit.

Afraid of missing out when the price rises, chasing high at 3 AM; panicking and cutting losses when the price drops, only to see it rebound right after selling—does this sound like you?
I have seen too many friends paying tuition with real money: repeatedly trading while staring at the 15-minute chart, losing a pile on transaction fees without making any profit; hearing the community shout 'hundred times coin' and rushing in, only to end up stuck at the peak drinking the northwest wind. In fact, the K-line patterns in the crypto market have long been thoroughly understood by veteran players!
The following 9 phrases are the essence of practical experience that I summarized after losing six figures. Memorize them to avoid three years of detours; your trading mindset can stabilize by half!

As a post-90s individual struggling in Guangzhou's subway and enjoying pig trotters rice, I have invested the most 'crazy' 7 years of my youth into the unpredictable cryptocurrency market. Looking back now, the first 3 years of my journey were like the 'eye-catching bag' in a market quiz—experiencing liquidation to the point of questioning life, with an empty account when the platform ran away. The initial capital of 50,000 that I saved through frugality evaporated overnight without a trace.
During the darkest days, my partner of many years said, 'I feel so insecure,' and turned away. I cried all night holding a bottle in my rented room but inadvertently dodged that 'black market' event that left countless people impoverished overnight. That day, I opened the market software, watching the candlestick chart plummet like a roller coaster. Some shared screenshots of their profits, while others filled the community with 'see you on the rooftop,' and I was left in a mess but suddenly woke up: this circle has never been about luck; those who survive must have their own 'survival rules.'

Family, who understands! Whenever high leverage is mentioned, many people are immediately scared out of their wits: 'Can't touch it! Eventually, I'll lose everything!' But as someone who has been in the crypto market for 5 years and has seen countless ups and downs, I must tell you a hard truth today — high leverage itself is a neutral tool; it can double your investment or bring you to zero; it's never the leverage, but your own operation and mindset!
Many people fear high leverage, fundamentally because they don't understand its logic. When the market moves in the expected direction, spot prices can rise by 5 points, and a correctly directed high leverage operation can yield several times the profit; this is not luck, but the underlying mathematical effect of leverage at work. But why can some people profit from it while others can only be harvested like chives? The key lies in 'the ability to control.'

Every day in the background, someone asks: 'Old K, if I have accumulated seven-digit encrypted assets, should I convert them all to stablecoins for annualized returns and lie flat?'
My answer is simple: completely wrong!
Having been in the crypto market for seven years, I've seen too many people stumble over 'idle funds' — holding cash while saying there are no opportunities, when in fact their capital structure can't seize any opportunities. A few days ago, a fan shared their account, with 1,000,000 all lying in stablecoin investments, earning over 80,000 in interest in a year, yet they complained that 'the earnings are too slow.' When I saw the screenshot, I just laughed: all the funds are in one basket, unable to withstand fluctuations and missing out on market trends. How can it not be slow?

Last night, I had a small gathering with three industry veterans with over 10 years of experience. Just after three rounds of Moutai, the topic on the table exploded — when discussing the recently controversial 'Aster new layout', I quickly commented, "Isn't this just changing the shell to play in a loop?" Lao Yang across the table immediately set down his glass: "You still don't see through this; it's fundamentally a Web3 version of the 'Alipay chess game'!"
This statement instantly sobered me up halfway. Who is Lao Yang? Back when a certain leading public chain hadn't broken through yet, he heavily invested and made a seven-figure profit during the bear market of 2022. He took a sip of tea and slowly said: "The centralized methods everyone is focusing on now are like Taobao back in the day — useful, but with a ceiling. Why did Jack Ma insist on creating Alipay? Clearly, it was an e-commerce platform, yet he had to touch on the 'unrelated' issue of payments? Because he knew that without a payment closed loop, Taobao would forever be 'someone else's platform', and the ecosystem couldn't be built."