Recently, Master Ye has been doing quite well in trading, even on weekends, he made a wave of profits. However, even when trading becomes smoother, one must apply the brakes, calm down, and think about the next steps and plans.
Human greed and fear drive the market forward like waves. There is no continuous upward trend, nor will there be a continuous downward trend. Therefore, after moving the stop-loss for our short positions, we must remain alert to potential market rebounds at any time.
Currently, there are two probable market trends, and Master Ye will share his thoughts.
The first scenario is on the daily chart, where there will be another drop to complete the 5th wave, followed by a weekly level b-wave rebound. That is, drop first, then rebound, and then drop again.
The second scenario is that the 5 waves have been completed, and we are currently in the weekly level b-wave. That is, rebound first, then drop.
However, regardless of the scenario, the best time to short is at the high point of the weekly b-wave. Currently, there are three important resistance levels: 9.45w, 9.7w, and 10.4w, which is the area where I plan to short in batches. Betting on the decline of wave c. Generally, c-wave declines are particularly fierce, and this wave of shorting will yield significant profits.
However, looking at the current situation, it is not advisable to be overly bearish at this position. Although there may still be a new low, we must be wary of a possible b-wave rebound at any moment, so as not to have the correct direction but flatten our positions.
On a macro level, some positive news has been noted. For example, former New York Fed repurchase expert and Bank of America interest rate strategist Mark Cabana predicts that in addition to the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will announce plans to purchase $45 billion in Treasury bills (T-bills) monthly next Wednesday. This debt purchase operation is set to be officially implemented in January 2026, aimed at injecting liquidity into the system to prevent further spikes in repo market interest rates.
In simple terms, the Federal Reserve has noticed signals of market liquidity exhaustion and plans to inject some liquidity. Combined with next Wednesday's interest rate meeting, volatility will increase next week.
Thus, my specific operation is to not chase shorts at this position, retain some of the short positions on hand, and patiently wait to add shorts at 9.45-9.7-10.4w. At the same time, in the short term, I might consider light positions for longs.
Master Ye's strategy remains primarily short, with some long positions as a supplement. If signals to go long appear, I will take light positions. If it reaches, I will also share with my students immediately $BTC #BTC走势分析
