Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Short-term Rebounds Set Direction, Medium to Long-term Risks Still Need Attention

Yesterday's short-term prediction was accurately realized! After the major coin broke down from 88000 to 87719, it quickly rebounded, soaring above 91500 within two hours in the early morning. A signal was given in the group beforehand to "break through 89100 to confirm the launch of a 1-hour-level rebound," which was successfully effective. Additionally, the ZEC that was suggested to buy around 340 performed well, and it is expected to challenge the 440 mark in the future.

Short-term Core: The Strength of the 1-hour Rebound is Revealed

The current 1-hour-level rebound of the major coin is still ongoing, with two possible future trends:

- If it breaks through 94150, it will extend to a 4-hour-level rebound, targeting 95000 above, followed by the start of a new 4-hour-level decline;

​

- If it is stuck in the 92000-94100 range and unable to break through, it will be a "second sell" signal for the 4-hour-level correction.

Short-term attention should be paid to the 15-minute-level rhythm: the first wave of the rebound is nearing its end, with shallow corrections looking at 90800 support, and a high probability of breaking through 94000; deeper corrections should focus on the 90000 mark, with increased difficulty in breaking through. The rebound strength can be confirmed in tomorrow's morning session.

Medium to Long-term: Is it Hard to Make Money in a Bull Market? Downward Trend Has Not Changed

Many are confused; the major coin rose from 15500 to 126200 (an increase of over 8 times) but did not make any money. In reality, institutional entry has changed the market ecology, making it harder for retail investors to profit. The large-scale trend still carries clear risks:

- Weekly level: A downward trend has begun, expected to continue until May or October 2026, with a temporary target of 62000 (do not stubbornly pursue points in real trading; wait for the signal that the downward structure has ended);

​

- Daily level: The downward trend since 126000 has not ended, initially looking at the 75000-80000 range, followed by about 2 months of rebound (target 101000-104000), and after the rebound, there will still be a third wave of decline, first looking at 70000, if it breaks down, then looking at 62000;

​

- 4-hour level: The rebound may end at any time, and it is highly probable that a new decline will begin from this weekend to next week, targeting 75000-80000. Do not be misled by the belief that "80000 is the bottom."

Ethereum: Following the Major Coin, Risks Not Eliminated

Ethereum is synchronized with the major coin's trend, with short-term 15-minute level correction support looking at 3060, and the next wave of rebound focusing on 3200. Whether it can break 3240 will depend on the major coin's behavior. If it cannot break through 3440 at the 4-hour level, it may subsequently test the 2200-2600 range, with the 2600 bottom not yet confirmed. The current rebound is merely a short-term correction.

Summary: Short-term focus on the strength of the major coin's 1-hour rebound, while medium to long-term caution is necessary; do not be misled by short-term rebounds, and patiently await clear entry signals for a more secure strategy. $BTC $ETH