The oscillating pattern remains unchanged, and the high short strategy remains the same.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, and the big coin surged but failed to break through the 95000 mark, directly confirming that the rebound in the past half month has not opened up upward space.
Looking back at November 28, the big coin rose to 93100, and more than ten days later, the high point only touched 94600. If a trend-based significant rebound occurs, it should break through 98000. As the oscillating pattern remains unchanged, the probability of a decline at the 4-hour level continues to rise.
Many believe that 80600 is a short-term bottom, but from the perspective of the theory of entanglement, we need to wait for the 4-hour level decline to complete before confirmation. If this decline does not break below 80600 and a daily rebound second buy signal appears, then the daily rebound can be considered to have started early; if it breaks below, then the rebound has not yet arrived. However, the judgment remains unchanged: there is a high probability of a daily level rebound from the end of December to the end of January, but the starting point is to be determined, and 80600 has not yet been confirmed.
In the short term, the big coin has formed a central point at the 1-hour level. The surge before the interest rate cut was a departure segment, and now it has fallen back to the central point, interrupting the rebound rhythm. The 1-hour level adjustment that started from 94500 is likely not complete, and the support at 87000 can be noted below. Once it breaks below 87500, it basically confirms the start of a 4-hour level decline, and afterwards, at least three 1-hour movements of "down-up-down" should occur.
The 15-minute level fluctuated violently last Friday, first dropping to 89200, then V-rebounding to 93500, followed by a drop back to around 90000, and then sideways consolidation over the weekend. Although the movement is complex, the high short strategy remains unchanged. In the short term, pay close attention to the support range of 89000-90000. If 89000 is lost, the big coin is likely to test 87000; only if it stabilizes above 90300 can we determine that the 1-hour level rebound has started.
The structure of Ethereum's movement is clear, having fallen from 3450 to below 3100 at the 1-hour level, and the third buy signal at the 1-hour central point has failed, increasing the probability of a decline at the 4-hour level. Once the decline starts, it will at least test below 2800, and whether it can break below the previous low of 2620 needs to be observed as it moves. The short-term 1-hour decline is not complete, and the support at 2950 should be noted below, with expectations of a 1-hour level rebound next week that needs to be observed for strength.
Trend Overview
- Weekly, Daily: Direction downwards, daily decline not finished, 71000 likely not to break.
- 4-hour: Direction downwards, breaking below 87500 confirms decline.
- 1-hour, 15-minute: Direction downwards, observe the strength of the decline and the gain/loss of the 89000 support $BTC $ETH #美联储降息
