K线捕手--图灵

October Return to Cang Recruitment Plan！

Want to make a stable profit in the investment market this October? Stop pondering the market by yourself!

Teacher Turing has many years of practical experience and is best at capturing significant market trends, especially investment opportunities related to the Silk Road. Whether it’s quick in-and-out short-term trades, stable mid-term positions, or long-term strategic layouts, the timing can be particularly precise.

It’s still one-on-one personal teaching, only recruiting 5 students! The requirements are simple: as long as you can prepare over 10,000 "oil" as startup funds in October, those with strong execution abilities are welcome. $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调

Cryptocurrency Trading: 3 Practical Strategies to Avoid Traps and Ensure Profitability

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; some chase highs and lows and become "retail investors," while others can steadily profit with clear strategies. Here are 3 market-tested practical strategies to help you find the right direction in a complex market.

First, establish the judgment logic of "trend is king." Most of the time in the cryptocurrency market is spent in a clear trend; during an uptrend, the candlestick body is large, and the pullback is small, while the opposite is true in a downtrend. You can determine the trend using the 5-day and 10-day moving averages: when the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and both are moving upwards, it indicates an uptrend, and you should primarily go long; conversely, it indicates a downtrend, and you should prioritize observing or lightly shorting. Remember not to go against the trend; for example, during the Bitcoin bull market in 2023, investors who forcefully shorted against the trend often suffered heavy losses.

Second, strictly adhere to the "position management" rule. A common mistake for beginners is to go all-in; once the market reverses, they face the risk of liquidation. The correct approach is to divide funds into 5-10 parts, with a single position not exceeding 20%. In extreme market conditions, such as when contract market fluctuations exceed 10%, you can set a stop-loss line of 5%-8% that, when triggered, requires immediate exit. For example, in the altcoin market, even if you are optimistic about a certain coin, you still need to reserve funds to respond to sudden pullbacks, avoiding being forced to cut losses due to overly heavy positions.

Finally, adhere to the principle of "signal trading" and reject subjective assumptions. Before trading, wait for a clear entry signal, such as the appearance of reversal patterns like "head and shoulders" or "double bottoms" in candlestick charts, or a sudden increase in trading volume accompanying a price break through key resistance levels. At the same time, combine indicators like MACD and RSI to assist in judgment; when indicators and prices diverge, it often serves as a warning of a trend reversal. For example, if Ethereum's price hits a new high while the RSI indicator continues to decline, this is a typical signal of a topping divergence, necessitating timely profit-taking and exit.

There are no "foolproof" secrets in cryptocurrency trading; only by internalizing strategies into habits can one maintain rationality amid fluctuations. Remember: chase fewer short-term hot spots, practice judgment skills more, and profitability will become inevitable. $BTC $ETH #鲍威尔发言

Rebound or turning point, key positions to watch closely

On Monday, we judged that Bitcoin would start a rebound at the 1-hour level, targeting a push towards 94000, while also noting that the 4-hour level rebound is nearing its end. For the past two days, we have repeatedly reminded that around 90,000 is a good entry point for a long position, and last night I advised real trading students to pay attention to whether the 4-hour rebound would end after the interest rate cut took effect.
Today, Bitcoin fell as expected, but we cannot yet confirm 100% that the 4-hour correction has begun. After all, without the appearance of a “second sell” signal, we cannot rule out the possibility of an extended rebound. However, the rebound that started from 80,000 has been in play for 19 days, theoretically the 4-hour rebound should have ended by now; we just need to patiently wait for clearer signals.
If a 4-hour level decline occurs later, will it break below 80,000? From the perspective of Chan theory, the risk of a “three sell” in the 4-hour central region has not been eliminated, and we need to be prepared for a drop to 80600, with the exact landing point still needing to be observed as we proceed.
The 1-hour level movement of Bitcoin is clear, showing an “aAb” consolidation pattern from 80600 to 94500: 80600-93000 is the entry segment a of the central region, and 93000-97700 forms the 1-hour central region A, with 87700 starting the exit segment b pushing up to 94500. Currently, the exit segment is diverging, with prices retracing within the central region, and the probability of a 4-hour decline is high.
However, returning to the central region does not mean the end of the rebound; it could also be an extension of the central region. If the subsequent 1-hour rebound does not create a new high, the 4-hour correction is basically confirmed; if it breaks below 87000 in the short term, it is highly likely to trigger a 4-hour decline, and the current 1-hour decline has not yet completed, with at least one more drop to come. At the 15-minute level, starting from last night’s spike high, the daytime rebound is nearing its end, and there will be a third wave of decline, with a key focus on whether it can break below 87000.
Ethereum usually follows Bitcoin, and this time it unexpectedly reached a high of 3447. After breaking through 3435, the probability of not falling below 2620 has increased, but we still need to observe the market evolution. Currently, Ethereum is undergoing a 1-hour correction, which has not yet ended, with a key focus on 3100 below—if it breaks, the 1-hour central region’s “three buys” will disappear, and the probability of a 4-hour decline will greatly increase, noting that 3100 is a structural boundary rather than strong support.
Ethereum at the 15-minute level still has at least one wave of decline left, and according to the rhythm, this 1-hour correction is expected to last until tomorrow morning.

Trend Overview:
Weekly, daily: Direction downwards, daily decline has not ended, 71000 is unlikely to break
​4-hour: Direction downwards, decline may have already started, further observation is needed
​1-hour, 15-minute: Direction downwards, decline has not yet ended, pay attention to the subsequent strength $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Short-term Rebounds Set Direction, Medium to Long-term Risks Still Need Attention

Yesterday's short-term prediction was accurately realized! After the major coin broke down from 88000 to 87719, it quickly rebounded, soaring above 91500 within two hours in the early morning. A signal was given in the group beforehand to "break through 89100 to confirm the launch of a 1-hour-level rebound," which was successfully effective. Additionally, the ZEC that was suggested to buy around 340 performed well, and it is expected to challenge the 440 mark in the future.

Short-term Core: The Strength of the 1-hour Rebound is Revealed

The current 1-hour-level rebound of the major coin is still ongoing, with two possible future trends:

- If it breaks through 94150, it will extend to a 4-hour-level rebound, targeting 95000 above, followed by the start of a new 4-hour-level decline;
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- If it is stuck in the 92000-94100 range and unable to break through, it will be a "second sell" signal for the 4-hour-level correction.

Short-term attention should be paid to the 15-minute-level rhythm: the first wave of the rebound is nearing its end, with shallow corrections looking at 90800 support, and a high probability of breaking through 94000; deeper corrections should focus on the 90000 mark, with increased difficulty in breaking through. The rebound strength can be confirmed in tomorrow's morning session.

Medium to Long-term: Is it Hard to Make Money in a Bull Market? Downward Trend Has Not Changed

Many are confused; the major coin rose from 15500 to 126200 (an increase of over 8 times) but did not make any money. In reality, institutional entry has changed the market ecology, making it harder for retail investors to profit. The large-scale trend still carries clear risks:

- Weekly level: A downward trend has begun, expected to continue until May or October 2026, with a temporary target of 62000 (do not stubbornly pursue points in real trading; wait for the signal that the downward structure has ended);
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- Daily level: The downward trend since 126000 has not ended, initially looking at the 75000-80000 range, followed by about 2 months of rebound (target 101000-104000), and after the rebound, there will still be a third wave of decline, first looking at 70000, if it breaks down, then looking at 62000;
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- 4-hour level: The rebound may end at any time, and it is highly probable that a new decline will begin from this weekend to next week, targeting 75000-80000. Do not be misled by the belief that "80000 is the bottom."

Ethereum: Following the Major Coin, Risks Not Eliminated

Ethereum is synchronized with the major coin's trend, with short-term 15-minute level correction support looking at 3060, and the next wave of rebound focusing on 3200. Whether it can break 3240 will depend on the major coin's behavior. If it cannot break through 3440 at the 4-hour level, it may subsequently test the 2200-2600 range, with the 2600 bottom not yet confirmed. The current rebound is merely a short-term correction.

Summary: Short-term focus on the strength of the major coin's 1-hour rebound, while medium to long-term caution is necessary; do not be misled by short-term rebounds, and patiently await clear entry signals for a more secure strategy. $BTC $ETH

Is Bitcoin's rebound reaching a top signal? Reduce positions on highs, patiently wait for low-level buying opportunities.

Last Thursday, it was indicated that the short-term rebound strength was weakening, and a 1-hour level pullback was imminent. Now, Bitcoin has fallen from $94,150 to $88,000, with a drop of $6,000 confirming the judgment, but this 1-hour pullback has not yet ended. Whether it can escalate to a 4-hour level decline still requires continuous observation.

Since Bitcoin rebounded from $80,600, there has been no clear bottom signal on the daily chart, and it lacks a strong upward driving force. This rebound is merely a short-term correction, and it is highly likely to test or even fall below $80,600 again. Rather than entering blindly, it is better to patiently wait for the completion of the 4-hour level decline, as buying opportunities will be more secure.

Short-term Bitcoin: Oscillating entanglement, reducing positions on highs is advisable.

1-hour level: The downtrend may continue. If it falls below $88,000, $94,150 is likely to become the 4-hour rebound peak, and it may oscillate downwards afterwards. However, with the Fed's interest rate cut approaching in December, the market may be repeatedly swayed by news, and a return to $91,500~$92,000 during the 1-hour rebound cannot be ruled out, followed by a downward movement.
15-minute level: Currently in an oscillating center, it may either fall below $88,000 to explore $86,000 or break through $90,300 to initiate a 1-hour rebound. If the rebound takes place, it may impact $94,000 or form a pullback signal.
Overall, Bitcoin's 4-hour rebound is nearing its end, with a tangled short-term trend. It is advised to sell on highs and wait for a low-level entry in about a week.

Short-term Ethereum: Follow Bitcoin's trend, plan to enter below $2,600.

Ethereum's movement is in sync with Bitcoin, with two core points of focus: breaking below $2,980 may start a 4-hour decline, but it is highly likely to have a 1-hour rebound to around $3,100; if it does not break $2,980 by tomorrow morning and breaks above $3,075, a 1-hour rebound may start, potentially impacting $3,250.
The 4-hour rebound for Ethereum is also nearing its conclusion, and it is recommended to wait for a drop below $2,600 before considering buying spot.

Trend Overview: Overall bearish, decline has not stopped.

- Weekly: Direction downward, likely has entered a weekly level decline;
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- Daily: Downward trend has not stopped, with $71,000 support expected to be strong;
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- 4-hour: Turning downward, rebound is basically ending;
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- 1-hour: Maintaining a downtrend, whether it ends needs observation of short-term structure;
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- 15-minute: Oscillating consolidation, waiting for a clear direction of either downward break or upward surge. $BTC $ETH #美联储重启降息步伐

The 4-hour rebound has not ended; be wary of subsequent pullback risks.

The 4-hour level rebound starting from 80600 has a somewhat "twisted" structure. Previously, it was mistakenly judged that the third wave completed around 93000, but the pullback on Monday was merely the second wave adjustment. Many people are concerned whether this 4-hour rebound can surge above 100,000. Will it directly upgrade to a daily level rebound? The answer is clear: 80600 is only the bottom of the 4-hour level, and there is no daily bottom characteristic yet. It is still early to aim for 100,000 or to transition into a daily level rebound. Moreover, the current 4-hour still has a risk of "three sells." Only by re-establishing above 99000 can it likely avoid new lows. Now, the rebound strength is somewhat weak, and vigilance is needed for the potential end of the 4-hour rebound at any time.

Short-term Bitcoin: The 1-hour rebound is nearing its end; the second test of the 4-hour has not yet come.

1-Hour Level: The third wave of the 1-hour rebound is in progress, first looking at 94000-95000 above, but the strength is clearly diminishing, and it will likely end in the next couple of days. The next wave of 1-hour decline is crucial: if it falls below 86500, it will likely initiate a new 4-hour level decline. Many people wonder if 83800 is the second test? In fact, this is only the second test at the 1-hour level; the second test at the 4-hour level has not yet appeared, and it will likely have to decline again. When will the 4-hour rebound end? Look at the internal structure: if it completes 3 waves, it may stop by the weekend; if it completes 5 waves, it could extend into next week, with the core still depending on the strength of the upcoming 1-hour decline.
15-Minute Level: The 1-hour rebound initiated at 83800 has already completed 5 waves, and it is currently in the sixth wave of 15-minute pullback. As long as it holds above 92000, it will likely consolidate around the central area before pushing above 94000, after which a 1-hour or 4-hour level decline will follow; if it falls below 91000, the short-term will confirm the initiation of a new 1-hour decline, with initial support at 88000-89000.

Short-term Ethereum: Upgrade benefits boost the rebound; target 3250-3300.

Ethereum often follows Bitcoin, but this time the rebound is particularly strong, mainly benefiting from the Ethereum mainnet Fusaka upgrade on December 3—enhancing network speed through sharding technology, driving the price from around 3000 to above 3200 rapidly.
The current 1-hour level rebound has not ended yet, and it will first undergo a 15-minute pullback, targeting 3150-3080. After the pullback is completed, it will likely make another wave of 15-minute rebound, aiming for the 3250-3300 range. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is also in its third wave of 1-hour rebound within the 4-hour rebound, with a key resistance level above at 3435. As long as this level is broken, the probability of making new lows will significantly decrease.

Current price can be empty, Bitcoin target near 86500, Ethereum near 2875. $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #美国非农数据超预期

Short-term return to normal, medium to long-term trend is clearly discernible.

Recently, Bitcoin quickly dropped to 80600, short-term panic sentiment has been completely released, and the short-term trend has returned to a normal state. Under normal market conditions, technical analysis can effectively predict short-term trends; however, during extreme panic, greed, or violent fluctuations, emotions dominate the market, leading to distortion in technical analysis and increased difficulty in judgment. Currently, the 1-hour level rebound has been realized, and we can wait for the 4-hour level rebound.

Bitcoin medium to long-term

The weekly level has likely started a downward trend, lasting no less than four to five months, with the first target at 70,000-73,000. If it breaks below 70,000, we will look at 62,000, and the subsequent upward target aims directly at 150,000+.

The definition of bull and bear markets is subjective: from the perspective of the weekly level, multiple rounds of bulls and bears have been experienced since 15400, and we may currently face a bear market lasting from six months to one year, with a possibility of hitting new highs in the second half of 2026; in the monthly level dimension, it is still in a slow bull market, and the weekly decline is merely a significant correction. In fact, bulls and bears are not crucial; during the bull run of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025, most altcoins remained in a bear market, and both upward and downward trends present opportunities, making future boundaries more ambiguous.

The daily level is currently in the first wave of daily declines within the weekly decline, expected to end in mid-December, with a support range of 74,500-79,000, which is unlikely to break below 74,500. From mid-December to the end of January, we will see a rebound of 20,000-25,000 USD, targeting 97,000-103,000, and it may even test 110,000; from February to May, there is a high probability of another daily decline, with a focus on the 70,000 support.

Short cycle and Ethereum trends

The 4-hour level is still in a downward phase, with a rebound expected in the second half of this week to mid-next week to 92,000-96,000, after which a new wave of decline will begin. The 1-hour level rebound has not clearly ended, and a 15-minute level correction has begun, likely to retest 88,200 before completing the 1-hour rebound. Regardless of whether the 1-hour correction makes a new low, opportunities for long positions can be found after the retest.

Ethereum synchronizes with Bitcoin's trend: daily support at 2100-2450, with subsequent 2-month rebound targets of 3500-4000, and after another drop, it may surge to 10,000 USD; the 4-hour decline is nearing its end, and after a retest of 2500-2600, it will rebound to 3000-3400; after the 15-minute level correction, it is likely to surge to 2900 before ending the 1-hour rebound.

Trend overview

- Weekly/Daily/4-hour levels: Direction down, daily decline not yet finished
- 1-hour level: Direction up, rebound may continue
- 15-minute level: Direction down, focus on the strength of the correction $BTC $ETH #鲍威尔发言

From trading based on feelings and repeatedly losing money, evolving into a stable and profitable expert, the core lies not in technology or predictions, but in the cognitive level of five awakenings.
First Awakening: From pursuing right and wrong to internalizing probabilistic thinking. Before the awakening, you would feel frustrated and regretful with every loss, even questioning life itself, always obsessed with finding the trading "holy grail" that hits the mark every time, viewing trading as a judgment of right or wrong. After the awakening, you can calmly accept losses, understanding that they are the "fixed costs" of running a trading business; what you pursue is no longer the accuracy of a single prediction, but rather gaining a long-term probabilistic advantage amidst uncertainty, allowing the trading system to guide you through gains and losses, leading to positive expectations.
Second Awakening: From an emotional gambler to a person who respects the power of time. Before the awakening, losing money would drive you to seek revenge by doubling down to recover losses; making money would make you feel like the "chosen one," leading to excessive confidence and heavy investments. After the awakening, you kick the gambling habit, realizing that capital growth requires long-term accumulation; what you pursue is countless executions of stable strategies and strict risk controls, resulting in a slow and healthy rise of the account curve.
Third Awakening: From relying on market conditions to relying on trading signals. Before the awakening, decisions were based on feelings about market movements and rumors, always trying to understand the reasons behind market fluctuations. After the awakening, you understand that the market is always correct, and there is no need to fully comprehend it; decisions are only based on the clear, objective, and unique buy and sell signals issued by the trading system, like a driver obeying traffic rules, focusing only on their own "traffic lights."
Fourth Awakening: From being hijacked by emotions to becoming an emotional insulator. Before the awakening, fear caused you to hesitate before opportunities, greed made you take chances in the face of risks, and emotions were the biggest enemy. After the awakening, you pursue making orders and holding positions without emotional interference, like a robot devoid of feelings, accurately executing preset rules; this is a profound reshaping of self-awareness and behavioral patterns.
Fifth Awakening: From blind belief to forging a systematic faith. Before the awakening, trust in the system was based on recent gains and losses; profits were treated like a holy grail, while losses made you want to change it. After the awakening, faith is based on a wealth of objective data verification, understanding the system's performance in different market environments through hundreds and thousands of backtesting and reviews of historical data, and realizing its long-term positive expectation, which allows you to remain steadfast in execution even during consecutive losses. $BTC $ETH #比特币波动性

The opportunity and risk of Bitcoin's downward trend: closely monitor key levels in the short term

Recently, Bitcoin has been in a continuous downward trend, with prices consistently falling. Attempting to catch a rebound at this time is like licking blood from a blade. I previously took long positions twice above $88,500, both of which were stopped out. After breaking this level, the price fell to around $80,000, indicating that the downward momentum exceeded expectations.

As early as $90,000, I warned that Bitcoin might face a weekly-level decline, targeting $62,000. This trend is now clear, and it will be difficult to see new highs in the next six months. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic; there will be significant daily-level rebounds during the weekly decline. Capturing a 20% rebound space can yield good returns. The decline is both a crisis and an opportunity; there's no need to be a stubborn bull or bear.

Bitcoin short-term strategy

From the 1-hour perspective, the decline from $107,500 has completed 4 waves. The third wave of decline was strong, and there is a high probability of a fifth wave decline. The area around $80,600 may be a temporary low point, with limited downside space. It is necessary to observe whether the current rebound has ended, whether it will directly start the fifth wave of decline or continue to rise after a pullback.

In the 15-minute short-term view, the focus is on the pullback, particularly watching the support level at $83,700: if it does not break, it may consolidate before continuing to rebound; if it breaks, it is likely to test $80,000. If the 1-hour level rebound breaks $89,500, it may start a 4-hour rebound.

Ethereum short-term synchronous follow-up

Ethereum's trend closely follows Bitcoin. In the short term, looking at the 15-minute level pullback: if it does not break $2,700, it is likely to rebound to $2,900; if it breaks, it may test $2,550-$2,600. Currently, the 4-hour decline is nearing its end, but the daily-level decline has not stopped, expecting to pull back to $2,100-$2,400, with a possible end to the pullback by mid-December. I have positioned for a short, and will take profits based on the strength of the pullback.

Trend overview

- Weekly: Downward, target $62,000
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- Daily: Downward, not breaking $71,000 for now
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- 4-hour: Downward, may end the decline after another pullback
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- 1-hour: Upward, need to observe whether the rebound has ended
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- 15-minute: Downward, focus on the strength of the pullback $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期 #比特币波动性

Do you all think this order can still be secured? $BTC $ETH #比特币波动性 #ETH巨鲸增持

Opportunities for rebounds amidst declines, no need to panic!

After breaking 93500 yesterday, Bitcoin failed to maintain its upward momentum, retracing in the evening and hitting a new low of 88600 in the early morning. It has now pulled back above 91000, and a 4-hour level decline is likely nearing its end. In the short term, a fluctuating rebound is expected for five to six days, completing the 4-hour level rebound, with the target looking towards around 98000 or the 98000-100000 range.

However, the daily level decline has not yet ended, and the downward momentum has not been fully released. There is a high probability that fluctuations and declines will restart by next weekend, and the next daily level rebound may not come until December. Altcoins are worth looking forward to, as they may benefit from Bitcoin's daily level rebound in December-January.

In terms of short-term rhythm, the 4-hour decline that started from 107500 has completed three moves of “down up down,” and we are currently advancing a 1-hour level rebound of “up down up.” The first move of the 1-hour rebound is looking at 96000, followed by a potential retracement before rebounding; additionally, the monthly MACD on December 1 has a high probability of a death cross, making it very unlikely for this rebound to create new highs, so don’t have overly high expectations.

However, a weekly decline does not mean there are no trading opportunities! After peaking at 69000 in 2021, although Bitcoin fell to over 15000, there were two bright rebounds in between: Bitcoin rose 46% from January to March 2022, Ethereum rose 65%, and SOL rose 77%; from June to August 2022, Bitcoin rose 42%, Ethereum rose 130%, and SOL rose 87%. Where there is volatility, there are opportunities, so there’s no need to lose heart.

On the 15-minute level, the current retracement is nearing its end; as long as it does not fall below 89500, the third rebound will be initiated, targeting above 95000. Ethereum is closely following Bitcoin's movements and is currently in the 1-hour rebound phase of a 4-hour rebound. After a 15-minute retracement, it is expected to challenge 3150, with the 4-hour rebound target at 3300-3400, and it may explore 2870 again later.

Finally, to summarize the trend: the weekly trend is downward, and a weekly level decline has begun (targeting 62000); the daily trend is downward, possibly declining again to wrap up; the 4-hour and 1-hour trends are upward, and a breakout above 95000 will facilitate the rebound; the 15-minute trend is upward, and holding above 89500 will allow the 1-hour rebound to advance smoothly. $BTC $ETH #美股2026预测

$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 Weekly decline begins, analysis of short-term rebound opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethereum

At the beginning of November, we had indicated risks for Bitcoin below 100,000, and now it has broken below the 90,000 mark, with a high probability of a weekly-level decline starting, and the short-term target of 150,000 is off the table.

In the medium to long term for Bitcoin, the weekly-level rise from 49,000 to 126,200 has ended, and the monthly MACD death cross signal is clear, with a very low probability of a trend reversal after a 20,000-point surge within 12 days. Referring to historical trends, this wave of weekly decline could end as early as April-May 2026, or as late as October, targeting around 60,000, with the next round of weekly upward movement expected to challenge 250,000. Currently, the daily-level decline may not be over, with a high probability of a rebound in December to 104,000-111,000, and possibly retesting below 78,000 by the end of January 2026.

In the short term, Bitcoin has completed 5 waves of ups and downs at the 4-hour level, currently at the tail end of the fifth wave of decline, with 89,000 as key support. If it holds, a sixth wave of rebound will start, targeting first at 100,000; if it does not break 103,500, it may drop to 84,000, and a breakthrough could bring about a daily-level rebound to 110,000. The 1-hour and 15-minute levels currently show signs of stabilization, and a breakthrough of 93,000 or 95,000 will upgrade to a 4-hour level rebound, which could last until around next Tuesday, otherwise, it may retrace near 88,500.

Ethereum is also weakening, breaking the 3,000 mark, with weekly and daily-level declines underway. In the short term, 2,900 is key support; if it holds, it will rebound to 3,350-3,500, and if it does not break 3,700, it may drop to 2,500-2,600; a breakthrough at the 1-hour level of 3,200 confirms the rebound, while breaking below 2,900 will continue to test lower levels. In the medium to long term, the rebound target for Ethereum in December is 3,850, and from January to April 2026, it may drop to 1,800, and after completing the weekly adjustment, the next round of rise is expected to break through 10,000.

Trend Overview

- Weekly: Downward, Bitcoin target 62,000, Ethereum target 1,800;

- Daily: Downward, current decline may continue;

- 4-hour: Upward, Bitcoin breaking 95,000, Ethereum breaking 3,200 will upgrade the rebound;

- Short-term: Upward, focus on Bitcoin 93,000 and Ethereum 3,200 breakthrough situation.

3000 or broke down, the next step 2800-2600$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调

There is still a short position in hand $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调

The short-term pullback has not stopped, and the daily rebound opportunity is approaching

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below 99500, starting a new round of 4-hour level decline. From the high point of 126199, it has gone through 5 waves of 4-hour level movements, and is currently in the fifth wave of decline, which has not yet ended, likely continuing to probe lower.

The good news is that the daily level decline is nearing its end, and a daily level rebound (not a rise) is expected from the end of November to January 2026. However, after breaking below 96500, there is a risk of a weekly level pullback for Bitcoin. The probability of the weekly rise from 49000 to 126000 ending has increased, and if a weekly decline follows, it will be difficult to create new highs in the short term.

However, daily operations are mostly short-term at the 4-hour or 1-hour level, and the weekly direction does not affect the interim long and short positions. There is no need to panic currently; the decline has released a lot of emotions and is in the final stage of the daily level decline. The probability of new highs and new coins before the end of the year is low, but the daily rebound still has good profit space, and the rebound after a thorough decline is worth seizing.

In terms of short-term, after a weak rebound in Bitcoin at the 1-hour level, it may face a decline at the beginning of next week, targeting around 90000 (extreme 88000). Once reached, one can pay attention to medium-term longs; if the 15-minute chart can rise to 97500~98000, the rebound will be more complete, and breaking below 94500 requires continuing to look bearish.

Ethereum is synchronized with Bitcoin's movements, currently in the first wave of 1-hour decline at the 4-hour level. The short-term rebound looks at 3250~3300, and breaking below 3120 will continue to decline. 3000 is a key support level, and breaking it may lead to a drop to 2500~2600. Its daily level pullback has lasted 84 days and is nearing its end, so next week one should pay attention to bottom-fishing opportunities.

Trend summary: The weekly level is upward, but the ending probability increases. The daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour levels are all downward, while the 15-minute direction is unclear. $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调

The cryptocurrency market has been very volatile in the past few days. Bitcoin surged past the 106,000 mark on Monday, confirming the start of a 4-hour level rebound. Many investors who bought near Bitcoin 100,500 and Ethereum 3,290 have reaped good profits.

On Tuesday afternoon, the market faced resistance, with Bitcoin around 105,600 and Ethereum near 3,570 becoming short-term highs. Subsequently, a take-profit signal was issued for long positions, anticipating a 1-hour level pullback, with targets set at Bitcoin 102,500-103,500 and Ethereum 3,380-3,400. The market later pulled back as expected, with Bitcoin touching a low of 102,400 and Ethereum reaching 3,405. After buying at low levels, short-term profits were taken. However, last night the market fluctuated, with Bitcoin briefly falling below 102,000, resulting in some long positions being stopped out with small losses, while Ethereum exited with slight profits, making short-term trading challenging.

The most concerning question for everyone: Can Bitcoin break through 107,500? Will it drop directly below 98,000? The core judgment is whether the 4-hour level rebound has ended— as long as 99,500 is not broken, the rebound has continuity. In terms of amplitude and time, this 4-hour rebound has not yet reached its peak and is likely to fluctuate upwards to around 110,000 or higher. However, this rebound has been sluggish and is not a primary upward trend. After the rebound ends, there may be another 4-hour level bottoming out, and whether new lows can be created depends on the strength of the rebound: if Bitcoin can surge above 113,500, it is unlikely to create new lows; if it cannot break 113,000, it may test the 95,000-100,000 range.

In the short term, Bitcoin's 1-hour level has already completed 4 structures. As long as it does not fall below 99,500, it is likely to have a fifth rebound pushing towards 110,000, with a confirmation of the rebound starting at 105,400; the 15-minute level is currently experiencing a minor pullback, which may be an adjustment of the 5-minute or 15-minute level, with bullish expectations still in place.

Overall, the trend is bullish, with weekly and 4-hour levels both pointing upwards. The daily level needs to confirm the strength of the subsequent rebound. Although bearish sentiment is strong at present, the market is more likely to fluctuate upwards. Bulls do not need to be impatient and should patiently wait for entry opportunities after the pullback. $BTC $ETH #美国结束政府停摆

"No trend, no divergence," this is our little secret weapon for finding safe low-buy opportunities in the cryptocurrency market. Many people like to chase highs and sell lows, thinking it's exciting, but the truly smart approach is to place the buying cost in an absolutely safe zone, which we often refer to as "low buy." To successfully execute a low buy, one must first understand what a real trend is and when that trend might quietly "betray" us.
In simple terms, an upward trend is when the subsequent high points are higher than the previous high points, and the subsequent low points are also higher than the previous low points; conversely, a downward trend is when the subsequent high points are lower than the previous low points, and the subsequent low points are also lower than the previous low points. If this pattern is not followed, for example, if the high points are getting lower and the low points are getting higher, then it is consolidation, also known as a volatile market. Finding low-buy opportunities in a volatile environment is quite challenging, so the Chán theory suggests looking for low-buy opportunities within a downward trend, as this increases the success rate significantly.
Finding buy points in a downtrend sounds a bit bold; how can we specifically identify them? The Chán theory mentions a term called "wet kiss," which refers to the short-term moving average and the long-term moving average, such as the 5-day and 10-day lines, starting to repeatedly cross and intertwine. Imagine this scene as both bulls and bears fiercely tugging at each other, indicating that the market's original balance has been disrupted and is brewing a turning point.
However, just observing the intertwining of moving averages is not enough; how can we confirm that a turning point is indeed approaching? This requires looking at the MACD indicator. At the bottom of the chart, you can see red bars and green bars; during a downtrend, if the green bars get longer, with increasing area, it means the bearish strength is still strong, indicating a normal downtrend, so don't rush to buy.
But here comes the key point: if during the downtrend, the price continues to make new lows, yet the area of the green bars below has significantly decreased compared to the previous downtrend, this indicates that the momentum of the decline is weakening and the strength is exhausted; this signal is called "divergence." When the moving averages "wet kiss" coincides with the MACD divergence, it signals a very strong warning for a turning point.
Key points of this method:
First, remember that "no trend, no divergence" is the core of safe low-buying.
Second, look for opportunities in a downward trend and don't mess around in consolidation.
Finally, judge divergence by observing the intertwining of moving averages (wet kiss) and the reduction of the area of the MACD green bars. $BTC $ETH

The rebound signal is clear! How to view the subsequent market?

Recently, the Bitcoin market has been quite interesting. When it previously retraced to around 100,000, I closed my short position near 124,600 and reminded everyone in the internal group: if it drops below 100,000, only long positions should be taken, no shorts, as a 4-hour-level rebound could come at any time. Later, I also indicated that the U.S. government is very likely to end the shutdown this week, and a major rebound is on the way—sure enough, today's market has confirmed it!
As mentioned in previous articles, if Bitcoin breaks through 105,500, it is very likely to trigger a 4-hour-level rebound. Today, it peaked around 106,700, and the rebound isn't over yet; it's expected to rise to around 113,000 next.
From a broader perspective, as long as Bitcoin doesn't drop below 96,500 this month, I believe the daily-level correction is basically over. From now until April 2026, it is very likely to start a new wave of daily-level increases, potentially even reaching a new historical high.
Looking at the weekly level, we are currently still in the third wave of the weekly-level increase. As long as it doesn't drop below 96,500, the upward trend remains intact, and we can expect it to surge above 150,000. According to the past 4-year bull-bear cycle patterns, from November this year to January 2026 could be the peak of this bull market, followed by a bear market; however, I think the 4-year cycle may not necessarily persist, and it is more likely to be a slow bull market moving forward. What do you think?
The daily-level structure is also very clear: the first wave of increase from 49,000 to 109,600, followed by a drop to 74,500; then rising to 126,200, and dropping again to 98,900. As long as it doesn't drop below 96,500, from early November to April 2026, we may welcome the fifth wave of daily-level increases, targeting 150,000-200,000. The rebound has already shown signs, but it needs to break through 113,500 to be fully confirmed.
On the short-term front, the 4-hour level is currently rebounding, first looking above 110,000; the 1-hour level rebound starting from 99,300 may fluctuate up to 109,000-110,500; the 15-minute level previously fluctuated between 101,400-102,500, and now after breaking through, it hasn't peaked yet. It is very likely to fluctuate around 105,000-107,000 for another day before continuing to surge near 110,000.
Ethereum basically follows Bitcoin. Previously expected a daily-level correction to the 3,000-3,500 range. Now, as long as it doesn't drop below 3,000 this month, the next wave of daily-level increases is expected to surge to around 7,000. However, it needs to break through 4,250 to confirm the start of the increase. The 4-hour level rebound first looks at 4,100, and the 1-hour level is currently in the third wave of rebound. If it breaks through 3,720, it can reach around 3,850. The 15-minute level may further fluctuate around the entire central axis before continuing upward. $BTC

Is the rebound coming? Bitcoin and Ethereum key to watch these two positions
Bitcoin welcomed a 1-hour level correction on Friday, hitting a low near 99200 before stopping the decline, and did not break the previous low. According to regular trends, the weekend should have started a 1-hour level rebound, but the current market is in a volatile stalemate, and the complete structure of the rebound has not yet formed, requiring further observation of the subsequent upward strength.
The weekly level uptrend remains unchanged (starting from 49000), and the current situation is a healthy correction; however, the daily upward trend that started from 74500 has broken after the crash on October 11, and the current correction is a pullback of the rise in the range of 74500-126200. Currently, three 4-hour level declines have been completed within the daily correction, and if the third decline wraps up, the daily decline may end at any time.
As for whether this wave of 4-hour level decline has ended, it is still inconclusive. There are already signs of a potential end, and a 4-hour level or even daily level rebound may start at any time, but whether it can actually happen or continue to decline still needs to follow the market dynamics and cannot be blindly predicted.
Focus on the short term at the 1-hour level, 5 declines from 116400 to below 100000 have been completed, consistent with previous predictions. Whether a 4-hour level upward movement can start later depends on the breakthrough of key positions: strict resistance at 106300, personally paying more attention to 105500—standing above 105500 would likely break 106300, basically establishing a 4-hour level rebound; if it cannot break through, it may first consolidate before diving into the 96500-99000 range. The current core observation is whether the 6th 1-hour rebound can take shape and whether it can break through 105500, overall low long strategy is more prudent, risk control is necessary.
At the 15-minute level, the rebound from Bitcoin starting at 99260 has not yet formed, and the current situation is a small consolidation center. Before breaking below 100800, first observe whether it can surge to 104000 to complete the 1-hour rebound structure; if it breaks below 100800, low-position long positions can take profits first, waiting for a lower entry opportunity.
Ethereum's trend is synchronized with Bitcoin, and the 15-minute level is also in a consolidation center; if it does not break below 3310, it is expected to surge to 3480. Key observation point is 3550; if broken, it is likely to start a 4-hour level rebound, with major resistance at the range of 3650-3720, only after breaking through can it move above 4000.
Trend overview: Weekly upward (target 150000+); daily downward (likely to end in the near term); 4-hour downward (whether it ends depends on key breakthroughs); 1-hour upward (rebound structure not completed); 15-minute upward (Bitcoin not breaking 100800, Ethereum not breaking 3310 still has upward space).