The opportunity and risk of Bitcoin's downward trend: closely monitor key levels in the short term
Recently, Bitcoin has been in a continuous downward trend, with prices consistently falling. Attempting to catch a rebound at this time is like licking blood from a blade. I previously took long positions twice above $88,500, both of which were stopped out. After breaking this level, the price fell to around $80,000, indicating that the downward momentum exceeded expectations.
As early as $90,000, I warned that Bitcoin might face a weekly-level decline, targeting $62,000. This trend is now clear, and it will be difficult to see new highs in the next six months. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic; there will be significant daily-level rebounds during the weekly decline. Capturing a 20% rebound space can yield good returns. The decline is both a crisis and an opportunity; there's no need to be a stubborn bull or bear.
Bitcoin short-term strategy
From the 1-hour perspective, the decline from $107,500 has completed 4 waves. The third wave of decline was strong, and there is a high probability of a fifth wave decline. The area around $80,600 may be a temporary low point, with limited downside space. It is necessary to observe whether the current rebound has ended, whether it will directly start the fifth wave of decline or continue to rise after a pullback.
In the 15-minute short-term view, the focus is on the pullback, particularly watching the support level at $83,700: if it does not break, it may consolidate before continuing to rebound; if it breaks, it is likely to test $80,000. If the 1-hour level rebound breaks $89,500, it may start a 4-hour rebound.
Ethereum short-term synchronous follow-up
Ethereum's trend closely follows Bitcoin. In the short term, looking at the 15-minute level pullback: if it does not break $2,700, it is likely to rebound to $2,900; if it breaks, it may test $2,550-$2,600. Currently, the 4-hour decline is nearing its end, but the daily-level decline has not stopped, expecting to pull back to $2,100-$2,400, with a possible end to the pullback by mid-December. I have positioned for a short, and will take profits based on the strength of the pullback.
Trend overview
- Weekly: Downward, target $62,000
- Daily: Downward, not breaking $71,000 for now
- 4-hour: Downward, may end the decline after another pullback
- 1-hour: Upward, need to observe whether the rebound has ended
- 15-minute: Downward, focus on the strength of the pullback $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期 #比特币波动性
