Short-term bearish search for a bottom, the bottom-fishing window is approaching

This morning, Bitcoin's lowest point touched 87580, not breaking the critical level of 87500, but the probability of a decline on the 4-hour level is high. We need to wait for this wave of decline to finish before we can clarify the daily rebound rhythm. The medium-short term thinking: first look for a decline, then plan for a daily rebound of about 2 months.

On a weekly level, the MACD has crossed below the 0 axis, and the scale of the energy bars far exceeds the first quarter of 2024 and 2025, confirming that the weekly adjustment starting from 126200 is underway, with a target first looking at 70000, and if it breaks down, looking at 62000. In terms of time, if the structure is simple, it will end in May or June of 2026, and if complex, it will extend to October. However, institutional holdings have reached 5.94 million units (accounting for 30% of the circulating supply), combined with the strategic reserve layouts of multiple countries, this wave is just a weekly adjustment, definitely not a major monthly bear market. After the adjustment, the target aims for 190000. The threshold for Bitcoin will be raised in the next 5 years, and contract trading may become the main participation channel, but the difficulty will increase simultaneously.

For most people, the weekly wave is difficult to grasp. After bottoming out at 49000 in 2024, few could hold on through the significant retracement midway. Daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour level waves are more suitable for participation.

On the daily trend, the decline from 126200 has not yet ended, very likely going back to 79000, then starting a rebound from the end of December to the end of February next year, targeting 102000-106000; after the rebound, there will still be a wave of daily decline, first looking at 70000 support.

The 4-hour level has completed 5 waves of decline, with the fifth wave falling by 25% without divergence. There will be another wave of rebound and decline following this. The previous rebound stopped at 94600, not breaking 95000, and the current decline is likely to break below 80600, which is the best bottom-fishing opportunity in the short to medium term. After the decline ends, a 2-month daily rebound will follow, with the turning point possibly appearing from Sunday to next Tuesday.

On the short-term 1-hour level, after falling from 94600 to 87600, the rebound is expected to reach 91200, followed by three more waves of decline, paying attention to whether it breaks 83000; it may also oscillate between 87000-91500 for 3 days before declining again. If the rebound does not break through 93500, it will confirm the 4-hour downward trend. The 15-minute level is currently in the early stage of a rebound, and the subsequent trend will be observed as it progresses.

Ethereum synchronizes with Bitcoin's rhythm, with a short-term 1-hour rebound expected, targeting 3200, overall in a 4-hour decline, and after the rebound, there will still be one more decline, likely breaking below 2800. Whether it can break through 2620 needs to be observed. $BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向