The altcoin Bittensor (TAO) is just a few days away from its very first halving, as its decentralized AI network approaches the milestone of 10.5 million TAO issued. Scheduled for around December 14th, the event will halve the daily token issuance.
This halving represents a pivotal moment for Bittensor, echoing the Bitcoin (BTC) emission reduction model. While some experts anticipate a positive price reaction, others fear a 'sell the news' phenomenon.
Halving mechanisms and Bittensor's supply dynamics
Bittensor has a fixed issuance cap of 21 million TAO, designed to create scarcity similar to that of Bitcoin. According to the latest data from Taostats, the circulating supply has reached 10,451,753 TAO, thus approaching the halving threshold.
This event will reduce daily emissions from 7,200 TAO to 3,600 TAO, impacting rewards for miners, validators, and subnet owners. Unlike Bitcoin's time-based schedule, Bittensor's halving activates when the circulating supply reaches 10.5 million tokens.
The registration of miners, changes in network activity, and the introduction of Alpha tokens can affect the timeline, making the exact date flexible. Moreover, the Subnet Alpha tokens, introduced in February 2025, follow the same issuance timeline.
Why is this halving so important?
Generally, halvings are considered bullish catalysts because they slow down the rate at which new tokens enter circulation. Historical examples from Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) show that markets often react with anticipatory rallies, fueled by tighter supply dynamics and trader psychology. Although outcomes vary, the discourse around scarcity tends to influence sentiment before emission cuts.
Will Ogden Moore, a researcher at Grayscale, highlighted the long-term impact of this structural change. He noted that reducing emissions naturally increases scarcity and can strengthen the network's value over time.
The analyst also discussed Bitcoin's trajectory through its four halvings, during which the market value and network security of the asset continued to strengthen, even as miner rewards decreased. According to Moore, Bittensor's first halving represents a similar milestone. This marks the maturation of the protocol as it progresses towards its fixed cap of 21 million TAO.
"The early success of some applications based on subnetworks and the increase in institutional capital in the Bittensor ecosystem, combined with the impending halving of TAO supply, could serve as a positive catalyst for price," added Moore.
Technical perspective for the TAO price
Despite this, market sentiment regarding TAO remains cautious. An analyst pointed out that, although the halving reinforces the long-term scarcity of the altcoin, the event itself is unlikely to trigger an immediate price rally.
"I do not expect TAO to move during the halving event. Over time, increased scarcity will matter, as it has for Bitcoin every four years. But I don’t think this will be a significant catalyst for prices in the short term. That said, it is a major moment in Bittensor's journey," reads the post.
Another trader warned of a potential "sell the news" phenomenon as the halving approaches. He noted that TAO has already fallen below a significant support zone and faced a strong rejection during a recovery attempt, signaling a weakening bullish momentum.
"I warned of a potential sell the news event, and that seems increasingly likely […]. The 3-day zone I had outlined has been lost, and we just saw an aggressive rejection during the attempt to recover. If the resistance at $300 persists, I think it could very likely pull back to $230, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it below $200 either," said the analyst.
In parallel, data from BeInCrypto's markets show that TAO has fallen by nearly 28% over the past month. However, it recorded modest gains of 5.2% over the past week.
At the time of writing this article, the altcoin was trading at $288.33, representing a 1.83% increase over the last day. It remains to be seen whether the halving event will strengthen the overall weakness or help improve market sentiment, which should become clearer in the coming days.
The moral of the story: A halving alone is not enough to make a Bitcoin.
