$BTC
Major Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off Signals Cycle Exhaustion as Supply Drops to 13.6M BTC
Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are showing signs of renewed distribution, sparking debate over whether the current market cycle is approaching a phase of exhaustion. On-chain data reveals that LTH supply has declined to approximately 13.6 million BTC, one of the most notable reductions in recent months, as veteran investors move coins from cold storage to exchanges or newer market participants.
Historically, sustained sell-offs from long-term holders have tended to appear near or around major market peaks. These early adopters often distribute holdings into periods of heightened demand and strong price action, locking in profits while late-cycle buyers step in. The current decline suggests that some experienced holders believe the market may be nearing an overheated phase—at least in the short to medium term.
However, this shift does not necessarily mean a long-term bearish turn is imminent. LTH supply migrations often coincide with volatility rather than sudden trend reversals. In past cycles, similar distribution phases were followed by consolidation periods before the next directional move emerged. The key difference this time lies in relatively low exchange balances, meaning that even with selling pressure, overall circulating supply remains historically tight.
Meanwhile, institutional interest continues to provide a counterbalance. Spot ETF inflows and corporate accumulation strategies have helped absorb the coins entering the market, dampening the impact of LTH distribution. This tug-of-war between profit-taking veterans and deep-pocketed buyers may result in price stabilization or range-bound trading instead of a dramatic correction.
For traders and investors, the drop to 13.6M BTC in LTH supply is a critical signal to monitor. While it suggests potential cycle maturity,
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