Macron's 'super diplomatic show' in China has just ended, and the international political landscape has shown significant shifts: South Korea's rapid pivot, the Netherlands reassessing cooperation, rising anxiety in the United States, while Japan finds itself in a strategic dilemma.
This series of changes is not coincidental, but an inevitable result after the shift in power dynamics.
① Why have countries noticeably turned 'pragmatic towards China'?
The core lies in: #美SEC推动加密创新监管
China simultaneously showcases its dual advantages of 'hard power + soft power'.
In terms of hard power:
• The world's second-largest economy
• Global leading resilience of the industrial chain
• 5G, new energy, drones, J-35, nuclear technology and other breakthroughs in various fields
Gradually becoming a 'leader' in multiple tracks from being a 'follower'
In terms of soft power: #美联储重启降息步伐
• Not engaging in camp confrontations
• Not exporting crises
• Not forcing allies to take sides
For many countries, this kind of 'cooperative and predictable' policy framework is very important.
Countries are not 'picking sides,' but rather 'seeking benefits and avoiding harm.'
As the world enters a high-risk era, those who can provide stability, market, technology, and industrial chain will have stronger appeal.
② Why do South Korea, the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan each have their reactions?
South Korea: The fastest response
• After the cancellation of the China-Japan-South Korea meeting, South Korea immediately took the initiative to express goodwill towards China
• Adjusting from 'Korea-Japan-China' to 'Korea-China-Japan', the political signal is very clear
Netherlands: Pragmatism after tension
• ASML knows well that China is the largest market
• Completely cutting off supplies will only accelerate domestic replacements, hence the need to seek 'cooperation space' again
United States: A typical anxious response
• Recognizing China's influence while worrying about the dilution of its own strategic advantages
• The effectiveness of the 'forward presence' strategy in the Western Pacific is gradually weakening
Japan: The most awkward
• Against the backdrop of allies' pragmatic shifts, Japan cannot afford to relax nor can it bear regional risks alone
• There is a high probability of a strategy adjustment of 'hard externally and soft internally'
③ My judgment: The geopolitical landscape has entered a 'reconstruction period'
A global consensus is forming: #美联储取消创新活动监管计划
Maintaining a positive relationship with China is key to stabilizing the economy, security, and industrial chain.
In the context of weak global economic recovery, supply chain reshaping, and escalating conflicts,
A party that can provide market, technology, industrial chain, and stability cannot be ignored.
The future international landscape will no longer be 'unipolar or bipolar,'
Instead, it is a coexistence of multiple powers + pragmatic cooperation as the main focus.
Conclusion: The world is re-recognizing China, which has become one of the stabilizers in the world.
This is an inevitable result driven by the forces of the times, not diplomatic rhetoric, but rather the reality logic after a change in strength.
