🎯 Ultimate market bet: Powell's 'hawkish rate cut' vs. Hassett's 'future script'

At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve's 2025 year-end meeting will determine whether the market receives a 'Christmas gift' or a 'departure compromise'. A 25 basis point cut is already a strong consensus (with a probability exceeding 80%), but the real drama lies in the details.

🔮 Key highlight: A 'hawkish rate cut'

The market focus is not on 'whether to cut interest rates', but on 'how to cut interest rates'. As the outgoing chairman, Powell is very likely to implement a 'hawkish rate cut'—that is, while cutting rates, he will strongly emphasize that inflation is not gone and that the future depends on data, dousing expectations for easing next year. The real variables are the dot plot and the number of dissenting votes, which will expose fractures within the Federal Reserve.

🤹 Power struggle: Now vs. Future

This meeting is at the crossroads of power transition:

· Powell's balancing act: His core task is to avoid leaving a divided committee, paving the way for his successor with hawkish rhetoric.

· 'Hassett trade': Any dovish remarks from Kevin Hassett, a popular candidate for the next chairman, may be interpreted by the market as a 'preview' of future policies, thus countering Powell's hawkish signals. The market is simultaneously trading 'Powell's present' and 'Hassett's future'.

⚡️ Market impact: Two paths and a 'nuclear bomb'

Market reaction may be polarized:

1. Path One (Hawkish Reality): If the market focuses on Powell's caution, it may lead to profit-taking in risk assets and a stronger dollar.

2. Path Two (Dovish Expectations): If the market believes more in the easing future represented by Hassett, it may bet on a pressured dollar, benefiting risk assets.

Additionally, the underestimated 'nuclear bomb' is the Fed's potential announcement to restart Treasury purchases (approximately $40-45 billion per month), which means another expansion of the balance sheet, with far-reaching long-term effects.

💎 Summary: Finding opportunities in the cracks of consensus

This is not an ordinary rate cut, but a prelude to the end of an era. The real volatility will stem from: ① the hawkish-dovish scale of policy communication; ② the degree of public internal disagreements; ③ clear signals of power transition.

While everyone is waiting for Christmas gifts, don't forget to check whether the box contains immediate candy or a future blueprint that needs to be assembled yourself.#美联储重启降息步伐