In-depth analysis
1. Federal Reserve's decision regarding an interest rate cut on December 10
Overview: The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, 2025, a hypothesis that markets anticipate at 87.4%. An accommodative stance could boost cryptocurrency liquidity, while delays risk reigniting risk aversion.
Consequences: lower rates generally favor risky assets like cryptocurrencies, but over-leveraged markets (open positions up 21% in 24h) could experience cascading liquidations if the Fed disappoints.
( Forbes )
2. MSCI decision regarding government bonds in crypto-assets
Overview: MSCI will decide on January 15, 2026, whether to exclude companies holding more than 50% of cryptocurrencies (for example, MicroStrategy) from major stock indices. JPMorgan estimates forced capital outflows between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion.
Implications: Exclusion could weaken a key driver of institutional demand for Bitcoin, while inclusion could trigger a rebound.
( CoinDesk )
3. Final deadline set by the SEC for crypto ETF applications
Overview: The SEC must rule by March 27, 2026, on 91 ETF applications covering 24 tokens. Analysts anticipate an expedited approval process for SOL, XRP, and LTC due to new listing standards.
Implications: An approval could inject billions of dollars into altcoins, while a rejection risks prolonging regulatory uncertainty.
( The Defiant )
4. First policy measure by the Fed under the new presidency
Overview: The meeting on June 17, 2026, will mark the first decision of the Fed under the presidency of a close associate of Trump (likely Kevin Hassett), with investors anticipating a speed-up in rate cuts.
Implications: Political pressures for an accommodating monetary policy could weaken the dollar, but risks to credibility could drive up bond yields.
( Yahoo Finance )
5. The quantum apocalypse for Bitcoin encryption
Overview: According to analysts, quantum computers could break Bitcoin encryption by March 8, 2028, threatening $110 billion worth of bitcoins from the Satoshi era.
Implications: Although distant, this deadline encourages developers to adopt quantum-resistant protocols, affecting long-term investor confidence.
( U.Today )
Conclusion
Neutral to bullish short-term outlook (Fed/MSCI), structural bearish risks medium-term (exodus of institutional investors), and high long-term uncertainty (quantum). Monitor the Fed's statement on December 10 and incoming flows into BTC ETFs ($122 billion in assets under management) to anticipate short-term trends.$BTC
