While Bitcoin’s price has corrected toward the $90K range, on-chain data tells a completely different story. According to CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges continues to decline throughout 2025, recently falling toward 2.76M BTC — one of the lowest levels on record. As highlighted in the red box on the chart, even during the sharp price drop in November–December, exchange reserves decreased at an accelerating pace.
A shrinking exchange reserve means fewer coins are readily available for sale, tightening the liquid supply. Notably, this decline appears driven not by short-term traders, but by long-term holders and institutions withdrawing BTC into custody.
What makes this move striking is that it’s happening during a price downturn. Typically, falling markets cause inflows to exchanges as investors prepare to sell. This time, the opposite is true — signaling stronger underlying demand from investors accumulating for the long run.
Short-term volatility may persist, but structurally, Bitcoin is moving toward a market environment where a “supply shock” becomes increasingly possible. Despite weak price action, the on-chain data is quietly turning bullish.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
