#黄金 Russia's 2026 Gold Export Restrictions: Long-term Support for Gold Prices, Short-term Market Stability

On December 8, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced the policy of "restricting gold bar exports starting in 2026," which has become a key long-term variable in the gold market. This measure targets not only the global market but also includes member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) within its restrictions. The core aim is to block the outflow of cash rubles and gold bars of unknown origin from Russia, essentially strengthening the control over domestic currency and assets by regulating the circulation of precious metals.

From a market impact perspective, as one of the world's major gold-exporting countries, Russia's export restrictions will have a direct long-term effect on global gold supply: although the policy will not take effect until 2026, the expectation of "reduced circulation of gold bars in the next two years" has already formed. This effectively adds a "long-term support buff" to gold prices—the logic of supply contraction will become an invisible support for future price increases, especially against the backdrop of global de-dollarization and increased geopolitical volatility, where the scarcity premium of gold will become more pronounced.

However, there is no need for excessive short-term reactions: the two-year buffer period means that the current global gold circulation will not immediately tighten, combined with the fact that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. The policy news is unlikely to disrupt the existing rhythm, and the market will likely maintain a range-bound fluctuation.

Yet, the signal significance of this policy far exceeds its short-term impact: it reaffirms gold's core position in the asset layout of major powers—whether it is Russia strengthening the safety of local assets by restricting exports or the global market's expectation of reduced gold supply, both point to the same conclusion: the long-term value of gold will only increase with growing global uncertainty, a signal that investors should incorporate into their core logic for long-term asset allocation. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH