📊 On-chain Anomalies: Large holders transferring to exchanges in bulk
Recently monitoring discovered that a significant transfer of $MERL appeared on-chain. On December 7th at 10:18 UTC, address 0xeb8BD066… transferred 16 million MERL (approximately 5 million USD) to Bybit hot wallet address 0x01F00141… in a single transaction.
🔗 Transaction Details: Merlin Scan query link
Such trends are usually seen as signals of divestment, especially during low trading activity phases, warranting more caution.

📉 Market Performance: Weak volume and price, technical indicators are bearish

  • $MERL's recent TVL has remained around 150 million USD, but the 24-hour trading volume is only 26 million USD, significantly reduced from previous peaks.

  • Since the mainnet upgrade on November 26, the coin price has retraced about 13%, continuing to oscillate in the $0.34–0.35 range.

  • RSI has approached 30, and MACD shows a death cross trend, with a short-term structure leaning towards weakness.

⚡ Key Position: If the support at $0.32 breaks, look for $0.27
Currently, the main support below is at $0.32, and if it is lost, it may further probe around $0.27, and there is even a theoretical possibility of revisiting the April low (though the probability is low). The market often amplifies volatility when liquidity is insufficient.

🔓 Selling pressure accumulation: Multiple large transfers + upcoming unlocks

  • Since December, there have been at least 3 on-chain records of transfers exceeding $5 million into exchanges.

  • On December 19, there will be community and private placement shares unlocking, totaling over 25 million pieces, further increasing supply pressure.

🌪️ Emotion and Opportunity: Extreme fear brewing a turning point
The current Fear & Greed index is at 15 (extreme fear), and historically similar ranges are often accompanied by bottom oscillation.
$MERL, as a Bitcoin L2 ecosystem project, may still benefit from sector rotation if market sentiment improves.

🛑 Personal Opinion: Wait for a better entry opportunity
Against the backdrop of large holders distributing and selling pressure not fully released, it is not advisable to blindly catch the bottom. If the price retraces to around $0.27 and shows stabilization signals, it may be a more prudent medium- to long-term layout node.