12.9

The overall market continues to show a fluctuating pattern. On Monday, during the U.S. stock session, the ETH daily candle formed a long candlestick with upper and lower shadows, with the lower shadow significantly longer than the upper shadow, indicating a clear bullish signal. Although the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching, and it is highly likely that the main players will engage in wide fluctuations and profit-taking before and after the policy implementation. One must be wary of false breakout risks at the daily level—yesterday's morning report has already indicated that a breakout with volume and a stable position above 3150 is needed to confirm the continuation of the bulls. After reaching around 3150 yesterday, the price immediately faced bearish pressure, retreating to the 3050-60 area for consolidation. Today's core battle between bulls and bears still focuses on the key range of 3150-3160. If the price can quickly break through and stabilize in this area, bullish momentum will further be released, likely testing the strong resistance level near 3500 on the daily chart. If the support at the low point of yesterday's consolidation at 3050 is not maintained, bears may accelerate the downward move, testing the lower edge of the recent fluctuating range around 2900-2930. In terms of operations, focus mainly on short positions, with low long bets as a supplement. Do not blindly chase after prices; wait for clear directional signals.

On the macro level, at 3:00 AM on December 11, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's speech at 3:30 AM will be key catalysts for the short-term market, combined with expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19, which may further increase market volatility. The current market is filled with uncertainties, and impulsive trading can easily become cannon fodder. Maintaining rational risk control and following the trend is essential to establish a solid footing in a fluctuating pattern.