12.12
ETH
1. Macroeconomics and Capital: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market has exhausted its benefits, leading to profit-taking and a pullback. However, ETH ETFs still see inflows from institutional funds, and whales continue to accumulate. The 3200 level serves as the institutional cost line, providing strong support; CFTC's tokenized collateral pilot serves as compliance endorsement, ensuring medium to long-term liquidity.
2. Technical Analysis: The daily MACD shows a golden cross but the red bars are narrowing. The 4-hour chart shows a dead cross with reduced volume, and the 1-hour chart rebounded after reaching the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, it is in the 3150-3300 oscillation range, with 3260 being the short-term bull-bear dividing line (corresponding to the SAR indicator reversal point).
3. Sentiment and Events: The long-short ratio of 1.055 indicates bullish sentiment, but the $112 million capital outflow shows short-term caution. There are no significant data releases in the afternoon, and volatility is likely limited to range-bound trading.
II. Trend Qualitative Analysis
Short-term oscillation is biased towards the strong side, with no clear unilateral trend: The resistance zone at 3270-3300 (intraday high + previous platform) is clearly restrictive, while the support zone at 3150-3175 (50-day moving average + on-chain concentrated positions) is solid. The current price is at the midpoint of the range, lacking breakthrough volume, and the afternoon is likely to maintain narrow oscillation and consolidation.
III. Practical Operational Targets (Practical Guidance + Controllable Risks)
1. Bullish Strategy: Lightly go long in the 3220-3230 range during pullbacks, with a stop loss at 3190 (below the institutional cost line), and a target of 3270-3280 (first resistance level). If the target is not reached by 17:30, actively take profit and exit.
2. Bearish Strategy: Lightly go short in the 3270-3280 range during rebounds, with a stop loss at 3300 (breaking intraday resistance), and a target of 3230-3220 (midpoint of the range)
