Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting, bringing the policy rate into the range of 3.5%-3.75%. The post-meeting statement may include hawkish language, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in January next year. This confirms the logic we discussed earlier about giving a slap and then a sweet date. At the same time, we maintain the forecast of a 25 basis point cut in March and June next year. The long-term median interest rate forecast will remain at 3%.

In my view, a rate cut is a done deal, and Barclays has already outlined the number of rate cuts for next year and 2026/2027. This stable and sustained expectation of easing is the long-term fuel for risk assets like $BTC to continue their bull run. As Barclays predicts, Powell's hawkish remarks (suggesting a pause in rate cuts in January) are likely to create a brief wave of market volatility during the Wednesday press conference, shaking off weak hands. However, as long as the lifeline of $87,000 is not broken, any pullback is a buying opportunity.