Last week, a fan sent me a message in the middle of the night, full of panic: 'Teacher, there's only 3000 yuan left in my liquid funds, I got trapped chasing high prices twice, and now I don't even dare to spend much on food...' I sighed at the screen—this is already the 7th friend this month who has fallen victim to 'blindly following the crowd'.
At that time, I didn't let him rush to find a 'recovery target', but instead threw a bucket of cold water: the cryptocurrency market is not a vegetable market; understanding the rules of the game before entering is better than anything else. Spot trading focuses on long-term value, while contracts deal with risk hedging. If you don't even know what suits you, buying on a whim is like throwing money into the water; in the end, you'll just be someone else's 'exit strategy'. Today, I'm sharing all my practical tips, following them will at least help you avoid 80% of the detours in the market.
6 practical strategies: Don't wait until the market has moved to regret.
These are 'market signals' I've summarized from watching the market for 5 years; they are not metaphysics but the habitual actions of the main force and quantitative funds—
Bottom-fishing technique for consecutive declines: 9 days is a threshold. Not all consecutive declines can be bottom-fished, but if an asset declines for 9 consecutive days, with daily drops between 3%-5% (not a crash), it's highly likely to open a rebound window on the 10th day. This is a common cycle of washing out indecisive retail investors before slowly bringing them back. But remember, only buy 1/3 of your position, don't go all in!
Profit-taking technique for consecutive gains: Reduce your position after 2 days. I've seen too many people turn 'floating profits' into 'losses' because of greed. If an asset rises for 2 consecutive days, no matter how strong the momentum, reduce your position by 50%. The volatility in the crypto market is faster than flipping pages, with 10% gains today and 8% losses tomorrow being very common. Taking profits is not admitting defeat; it's the wisdom of putting real money in your pocket.
Sideways breakout signal: 6 days of consolidation + volume increase. If an asset consolidates for 6 days with daily fluctuations not exceeding 2%, and on the 7th day there is suddenly a surge in volume (trading volume is more than double the average of the previous 6 days), don’t hesitate, jump in immediately. This is a typical move by the main force to push the price up; waiting to see a 'new high' before buying will already be too late.
Iron law of time cost: If you don't make a profit the next day, cut your losses. If, after entering a position, the second day’s return doesn’t even cover the transaction fees, cut your losses immediately. Many people think, 'Just wait a bit longer, maybe it will return to the break-even point,' but the crypto market is full of opportunities and lacking in patience—spending funds on unprofitable assets may cause you to miss out on better market conditions, and time loss is more fatal than short-term losses.
Inertia of chasing rankings: Be steady in the top three, cautious in the top five. When watching the gainers every day, don't just focus on the first and second. The asset ranked third on the gainers list is likely to stay in the top five; however, anything ranked fifth or lower, especially sudden 'dark horses,' should be treated with caution as 'ephemeral.' Many people fall into the trap of 'waiting to break even,' holding onto assets ranked lower than fifth tightly, only to see profits turn into losses.
Quantitative selling pressure warning: Watch for concentrated selling pressure at 3 PM after 4 consecutive days of gains. This is an 'old trick' of quantitative funds—if an asset rises for 4 consecutive days, concentrated selling pressure often appears around 3 PM on the fifth day. This doesn't mean it will definitely drop, but reducing your position by 20% in advance to avoid risk is better than watching your account plunge in panic.
3 survival rules: Live long to earn more.
Strategy is 'skill,' survival is 'path.' In the crypto market, those who can profit long-term are never the 'most daring to bet,' but rather the 'most stable.'
Investing for the long term: Don't compete with the market in intelligence. I started investing in quality assets in 2020, regardless of short-term fluctuations, buying 1000 yuan every month on the 1st. Looking back now, my cost is lower than anyone else's, and even during a bear market, I never panicked. New investors shouldn't think about 'buying at the lowest point'; you don't have that ability. Dollar-cost averaging is the 'magic tool' to navigate through bull and bear markets.
Long-term holding: If you can hold, it's yours. I have an asset that I've held for 3 years; it dropped 40% in the middle, but I never sold. Now it's more than tripled. Quality assets depend on the team, execution, and ecosystem, not just on 'how much it went up today.' Refuse to chase highs and lows; don't be part of the 'atmosphere team' of the market; become a 'long-term investor.'
Risk is manageable: Don't let impulse empty your wallet. Never invest more than 30% of your liquid funds in the crypto market, and don't borrow money to play. Follow reliable circles, research options thoroughly, and don't be fooled by gimmicks like 'referral bonuses' or 'doubling overnight'—those who shout 'guaranteed profits' are either scammers or naive.
To be honest, the crypto market has never been a place for 'lone warriors.' Without information advantages and logical support, no matter how much money you have, you will lose it all. I have helped many friends go from 'losing to despair' to 'earning a stable monthly salary'; it's not that I have any 'exclusive insider information,' but I understand the 'temperament' of the market and know how ordinary people should deal with it.
What frustrating things have you encountered in the market recently? Did you buy the dip halfway up the mountain, or did you take profits too early and regret it? Feel free to comment; I read comments every day to help you sort your thoughts and avoid pitfalls—our goal is the same: not to be 'chives,' but to be 'steady profit-making pragmatists.' After all, making money is something that takes time, and that’s the quickest way!
