Yes. Otherwise, the market wouldn't exist, but determinism is not found in the unpredictable prices; it lies in the eternal 'logical structure' behind the prices.
Most people lose because they are always studying the ripples on the surface of the water (price fluctuations) without ever considering the currents below the surface that govern the ripples (intrinsic logic). Once you see the direction of the current, the rise and fall of the ripples will make sense.
The determinism I have realized comes from seeing through the three layers of interwoven 'logical structures'.
First Layer Determinism: The 'Grammar' Structure of the Market
The market may seem chaotic, but it has its own 'grammar'. Just like whether a sentence is smooth depends on grammar, the price movement's 'reasonableness' also depends on its intrinsic logical structure.
The core of this structure is the 'inevitable chain of causation', not 'linear causation'. It is not as simple as 'A happening leads to B happening', but rather:
1. The 'growth' of a trend: The birth, growth, aging, and death of a trend is a complete life cycle. It does not appear out of thin air, nor does it suddenly disappear.
It originates from the accumulation of momentum (such as long periods of consolidation), grows through the push of consensus, exhausts through the depletion of momentum (such as divergence between volume and price), and ultimately transforms into a new trend. Each phase is the inevitable result of the previous phase.
2. The 'conversion' of strength: The game between bulls and bears is not simply one side overwhelming the other, but a dynamic process of 'one side's decline while the other side's rise'. The strong side will not remain strong forever; its power will be consumed in the process of advancement; the weak side will not remain weak forever; it will accumulate strength in resistance.
The real turning point occurs at the moment when the power dynamics undergo a fundamental shift.
Therefore, the first level of certainty lies in: You no longer ask 'Will it rise or fall next?', but rather 'At which link of this logical chain is the market currently?' Is it in the early stage of 'growth', or at the late stage of 'exhaustion'? This provides you with a logical coordinate to observe the market, rather than an oracle's hexagram.
Second Level Certainty: Your 'Decision' Structure
Since the market operates with its own 'grammar', your trading system must be a 'sentence manual' that conforms to this 'grammar'. Your decisions must be a rational response to the current 'grammatical structure' of the market.
The core of my system is a layered filtering structure:
1. Positioning: What level of story is the current market 'telling'? Is it the macro big trend or the short-term small fluctuations? This determines your operation cycle.
2. Situation Assessment: In this story, to what point has the plot developed? Is it the beginning, development, climax, or conclusion? This corresponds to the phase of the trend's life cycle.
3. Validation: Is the 'force' (momentum) pushing the plot development real? Has 'false prosperity' (such as divergence between volume and price) appeared?
4. Action: Only when positioning is clear, the situation is understood, and validation is passed, will that high-probability 'action point' appear.
The second level of certainty lies in: Your trading is no longer a pile of scattered rules, but a logically interconnected deductive process. Each of your operations is not based on guessing, but on recognizing and responding to the current 'grammatical structure' of the market. Your system is a mirror of the market structure.
Third Level Certainty (Highest Certainty): The structure of 'Unity of Knowledge and Action'
The highest certainty occurs at the moment when your 'inner decision-making structure' resonates in sync with the 'market operating structure'.
1. When the market runs to the 'exhaustion' stage and a turning point is about to occur logically, your system has just completed all filtering and pointed to the same conclusion.
2. At this moment, your entry, holding, and exit are no longer subjective 'decisions', but inevitable actions based on logical deduction.
3. Entry is because you have identified the logical starting point of 'newborn'.
Holding is because the logic of 'growth' is unfolding, and you need to let it develop fully.
Exiting is because the logic of 'exhaustion' or 'turning point' has manifested.
The ultimate certainty lies in: You are no longer a speculator fighting against the market, but a recognizer and follower of market logic. You have gained true composure because your 'knowledge' (understanding of structure) and your 'action' (operating according to the system) have achieved unity.
Uncertainty still exists in the results of every trade, but certainty exists within the logical coherence of your entire operational process.
Summary
So, what is the certainty in trading?
It is not a guarantee of a single result, but a faith in the logical inevitability of the entire process.
1. The intrinsic structure of the market is certain.
2. The decision logic that matches this is also certain.
3. When the two are unified, the sense of stability from 'Unity of Knowledge and Action' is certain.
Profit is no longer a goal to chase, but a natural gift from fate when you understand the structure and follow the logic. Your perspective on candlestick charts will completely change; what you see will no longer be price fluctuations, but the unfolding of logic. At that time, you will transform from a tense gambler into a calm decipherer.
Thank you for watching, I am Little Egg Tart, nice to meet everyone. Xiao Fei focuses on Ethereum contract spot ambush, the team still has positions, get on board quickly, and help you become the market maker and a winner.#加密市场观察 $BTC
