At 3 a.m., when the phone notification exploded, I stared at the green line that broke through the 90,000 integer mark on the screen. The Moments have already entered the "bear market mourning phase" in advance, with some showing their double-digit drawdown and saying, "Can't hold on, need to liquidate," while others were flooding the screen with bad news, asking, "Is it going back to 60,000?" Even some newbies directly shouted in the group, "Who can save my position?".
To be honest, I've seen this kind of scene too many times. Three years ago, when leading assets fell to just over 30,000, I was more panicked than the newbies now: during the day, 8 out of 10 news accounts said, "Bull turns to bear," and at night I watched the K-line until dawn, fantasizing about "the rebound starting" when it rose two points, and pondering, "Should I run first?" when it fell three points. What was the result? After a series of "high sell low buy" operations, my returns were even worse than my old buddy who just held on — he said at that time, "You're not trading stocks, you're paying transaction fees to the market."
Old school hits the blackboard: The news is always the "tail" of the market, not the "navigator". When the market rises, good news is magnified infinitely; when the market falls, bad news can be dredged up and speculated on three times. Relying on news to predict trends is essentially driving with a rearview mirror; it’s a wonder if you don’t crash.
Actually, even before this week, I had reminded everyone in the community: Against the backdrop of global liquidity easing, U.S. stocks hitting new highs, and gold standing above 1,900, only the crypto market has been sideways for almost a year—this "abnormal calm" is itself a signal that the market is about to move. It's just that no one can accurately guess whether it will fall first and then rise, or rise first and then fall.
Just like the wave last year that crashed from 110,000 to over 70,000, I got up at two in the morning to watch the market, and the sweat in my palms soaked the mouse. At that time, my account was down nearly 30%, and my mind was filled with the thought of "Should I cut losses first?" But I gritted my teeth and held on for three days, and the market directly surged back from 70,000 to 100,000; in contrast, those who cut losses at the lowest point later chased in at the high of 100,000, perfectly stepping on the wrong rhythm. And those "black moments" like 10.11 and 5.19, weren't they all sudden drops with no warning and rises that also had no signs?
But there is one rule that has never changed: trends are a thousand times more reliable than short-term fluctuations. In the past three years, there have only been two real uptrends: from 41,000 to 64,000, and from 66,000 to 100,000; the rest of the time has been "grinding market conditions". Now we are in the late stage of a bull market, and fluctuations will only become more intense—just like a sprinter has to squat down before a burst of speed, before each major rally of head assets, there is a high probability of a "squat wash" of 20%-30%, just get used to it.
Three ironclad rules for all investors (purely practical advice)
Don't be a "dreamer of bottom fishing and topping out": No one can precisely buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. In 2022, I entered a certain anonymous asset at 40 and exited at 600, going through three pullbacks of more than 30%. I didn't sell simply because I only wanted to earn from the "most certain segment in the middle", not greedy for profits at both ends.
Hold your chips on "core assets": What falls hard in a bear market are altcoins, what rises steadily in a bull market are the leaders. In this round of decline, those core targets with solid fundamentals have pulled back much less than altcoins and rebound much faster—choosing the right targets is already half the success.
The mindset is the last line of defense: Most people lose money for two reasons: panicking and cutting losses at the bottom, and crazily chasing gains at the top. To survive longer and earn more in this market, one must not be arrogant when the market rises and not panic when it falls.
No matter how the K-line shakes now, do not hand over your chips in panic. Remember: market fluctuations are opportunities for the patient, not traps for the panicked. The market is still there, the trend hasn't broken, maintain your mindset, and the next wave of counter-trend might be just around the corner.
