Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
Every December, crypto investors await the so-called 'Santa Claus rally' - the traditional pre-New Year growth. However, 2025 may be an exception.
What is the 'Santa Claus rally'
The term came from the stock market, where stocks historically show growth before the winter holidays. The reasons are pre-holiday excitement, active spending by consumers, discounts from sellers, and companies' desire to improve annual statistics. In cryptocurrencies, which are more volatile by nature, a similar effect can be much more noticeable.
The Role of the Federal Reserve
The key factor for the growth of digital assets remains the policy of the Federal Reserve of the USA.
• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025.
• The consensus forecast suggests a rate cut of 25 basis points (probability - 93%).
• However, this scenario is already priced in by the market: similar actions in September and October did not cause a significant rise.
A serious impulse would require a cut of 50 points or more, but the probability of such a decision is extremely low.
Geopolitical factors
Investors are also monitoring external events:
• Possible tariff reductions by the US administration.
• Progress in resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe.
Any positive development could act as a catalyst for the growth of cryptocurrencies.
Statistics and history
• In November 2025, Bitcoin fell by 17.67%.
• Over the last eight years, there has not been a 'positive December' after a negative November.
• Historical data indicates a low probability of growth at the end of the year.
Feature of the year 2025
Nevertheless, the year 2025 turned out to be unpredictable: the market reacted unusually to statements by politicians and decisions by regulators. Therefore, the possibility of an unexpected 'crypto rally' cannot be ruled out.
Conclusion
At the moment, there are few prerequisites for a Santa Claus rally in the crypto market: the statistics are negative, and the expected decisions of the Federal Reserve are already priced in. However, the volatility and unpredictability of cryptocurrencies leave room for surprises at the end of the year.
