The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut can hedge against part of the negative impact of the yen's interest rate hike.

When Japan's medium to long-term yields rise rapidly and the global carry trade structure is forced to shrink, the pressure on the entire system focuses on the two aspects of "compressed interest spreads" and "withdrawn financing," and the Fed's interest rate cut can provide a buffer at these two points.

A. By lowering the cost of dollar financing to maintain the USD-JPY interest spread, the global carry trade can at least remain within an operable range, preventing a collective breach that triggers systemic deleveraging. However, whether the interest spread can be maintained depends on whether the rate cut magnitude is greater than the speed of Japan's yield increase; otherwise, it can only partially offset and cannot truly maintain the interest spread.

B. The Fed's rate cut will bring new liquidity, allowing the market to at least see new liquidity emerging under the passive deleveraging pressure caused by yen interest rate hikes, thus avoiding liquidity withdrawal.

But this is still just a "hedge," not a "reversal," because the rise in Japanese interest rates is a structural change, prompting Japanese pensions, life insurance funds, and domestic banks to reassess the risk-return on U.S. assets, leading to a cyclical capital inflow. (Until the next period of zero interest rates in Japan)

The Fed's rate cut can only affect short-term financing costs and risk preferences; it cannot change the shifts in Japan's domestic interest rate system. In the short term, the Fed's rate cut can stabilize sentiment, boost risk appetite, and alleviate the chain reaction of forced liquidation, but in the long term, the rise in Japan's interest rate structure will continue to exert pressure on global liquidity.

This situation can only be adapted to, but the return of Japanese capital does not equate to a return of global capital. The U.S. AI sector belongs to a structural track of global capital concentration, so U.S. tech stocks may still attract investments from Europe, the Middle East, and domestic U.S. funds even if Japan contracts; other regions will still enter investments, and even Japanese institutions and funds are included. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储降息