From frequent losses at the beginning to now making a living through trading, I spent a lot of time figuring out the way. Rather than luck, it is more about gradually finding the rules after countless failures. I want to整理出 the insights accumulated over the years, all of which have been repeatedly verified in practice.
First, one must understand a principle: not all price increases are worth chasing. Be cautious with cryptocurrencies like $ETH that have risen more than 50% continuously; once you chase in, you often can't hold on, either frequently stopping losses or suffering from high psychological pressure. In contrast, opportunities like $BTC, which are positioned at low levels, have a higher cost-effectiveness—while risks are controllable, the upside potential is even greater.
Choosing cryptocurrencies is crucial. A simple way to judge strength is to take the 60-day moving average as a watershed. When the price stabilizes above the 60-day line and holds, it is the time to enter or increase positions; if it falls below the 60-day line, one should exit. Strictly following this rule works for most cryptocurrencies.
There is also a phenomenon that many people overlook. Before a true main rising wave starts, there is usually a small fluctuation of about 10% to 20% that occurs first, during which trading volume significantly shrinks. If the price is already at a relatively low level, this kind of fluctuation is worth gradually entering in batches. Out of ten times, eight or nine will likely be followed by a strong market trend. Identifying this signal in advance allows for priority positioning.
Every now and then, new concepts or new tracks will emerge in the market, and at this time, there is usually a rapid rise window of 3 to 5 days. By grasping this rhythm and following the direction of the main funds, one can capture short-term explosive opportunities.
However, in a bear market, the strategy must be reversed. When the entire market shows a clear downward trend, the smartest choice is actually to stay in cash and rest, rather than frequently attempting to bottom fish. Many people increase their losses through frequent trading in a bear market.
Ultimately, the core of successful cryptocurrency trading is not to pursue how high the returns are, but to learn to identify and avoid risks. Rational capital allocation, strict stop-loss implementation, and calm mindset management—these fundamentals are more important than technical analysis. Only by controlling risks can one survive long-term in the cryptocurrency circle.
Trading cryptocurrencies is both a technical and a psychological endeavor. From the initial struggles of continuous losses to now being able to profit steadily, it relies on the continuous accumulation of these rules and respect for risks. #加密市场观察
