Three years ago, a young man in Shenzhen did something 'incredible': he sold all 2 million units of a certain mainstream coin and raised money to buy a school district house in Nanshan. At that time, the community praised him for being 'clear-headed'—after all, the crypto world had just experienced a bear market crash, and real estate was 'stable happiness.' So what happened? This year, the listing price of that house dropped by 15%, while the price of the coins he sold surged fivefold. This move led him to be laughed at in the crypto group for an entire year.
In fact, stories about 'choices determining fate' have never been new in the asset market. Some people sold their houses to buy gold ten years ago, and now they can easily repurchase and renovate; some exchanged Bitcoin for financial products in 2020, watching it soar from $10,000 to $60,000; and others went all in when NFTs were at their peak, now their collections lie in wallets as 'digital memorabilia.' Many say this is 'luck,' but as a cryptocurrency analyst with eight years of experience, I must say: all seemingly random outcomes conceal a lack of understanding of cycles.
Key Takeaway: The underlying logic of asset rotation, the crypto circle cannot escape either.
Whether it's gold, real estate, or crypto assets, they all essentially revolve around "cycles"; there are no eternal kings. Let's break it down:
Gold: The anti-fall "ballast stone," but it cannot outpace high growth. A millennium of hard currency is not just talk; every time there is global economic turmoil, gold can always stabilize against the trend. Just like when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates most aggressively in 2022, the stock market plummeted, while gold actually rose by 10%. However, its problem is also very obvious—appreciation is too slow in peaceful times, and relying on gold to "get rich" is basically impossible; it is more suitable as a "safety cushion" in asset allocation.
Real Estate: Once a "wealth generator," now it has become a "cyclical issue." The brilliance of domestic real estate over the past twenty years led many to believe it would rise indefinitely, but they overlooked its strong ties to policies, population, and location. Now, the first-tier real estate market is stagnant, and the second and third tiers are adjusting, which is the inevitability of cycles. The liquidity of real estate is still poor; when money is urgently needed, it's difficult to cash out, which sharply contrasts with the "24/7 trading" of crypto assets.
Crypto Assets: High volatility "potential stocks," but you need to hit the rhythm right. The most fascinating and frightening aspect of this industry is the cycle—when the bull market comes, everything rises; when the bear market comes, everything falls. Those who entered at the peak of the bull market in 2017 were trapped for four years; those who chased NFTs at high prices in 2021 may still be "standing guard". Conversely, those who bought the dip after the crash on March 12, 2020, and positioned themselves at the bottom of the bear market in 2022 have become "legends" in the community. The key is not "whether to buy," but "at what stage of the cycle to buy."
Core Conclusion: There is no perpetual rise, only eternal cycles. True wealth wisdom is not about chasing every opportunity but understanding the "temperament" of different assets—holding the anti-fall assets during turmoil, pairing with growth assets during recovery, staying clear-headed during euphoria, and being bold in positioning during downturns.
Returning to the initial question: If you had to choose now, would you sell coins to buy real estate, or sell real estate to buy coins? There is actually no standard answer, but there is a simple method that always works—don't put all your eggs in one basket, and definitely don't follow the crowd when public sentiment is at its peak. Back then, everyone thought "real estate would always rise," and now many believe "crypto is a scam"; this is all a mistake of treating short-term trends as long-term rules.
I have seen too many people in the crypto circle, either too scared to enter again after missing out once or cursing and leaving after being trapped once. But honestly, this industry is like a roller coaster; without some cyclical thinking, it's easy to get thrown off during fluctuations. The next time someone tells you "this can make you rich" or "that will go to zero," don't rush to take a side; think about which stage of the cycle it is currently in—after all, going with the flow in a cycle is much more reliable than blindly guessing "where the opportunity is."
Lastly, let me share a little secret: those who have truly made money from crypto around me are not "gamblers," but "cycle hunters." They don't stare at the K-line crying every day, but quietly research projects in the bear market and gradually take profits in the bull market. When the next cycle turning point comes, do you want to be part of the "majority who slap their thighs," or the "minority who count money with a smile"? Follow me, and let's wait for the next opportunity together—after all, in the crypto circle, understanding the cycle means you've already won half the battle!
