Don't be fooled by the 89% probability! What truly ignites the market is not the interest rate cut, but this!

Ethereum has been consolidating at this price point for two days now, and market funds are clearly in a wait-and-see mode, with the focus entirely on the upcoming interest rate decision.

According to market predictions, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is close to 90%. If the outcome meets expectations, the policy itself may have already been largely priced in.

The key variable lies in Powell's remarks; his tone and wording will directly impact market sentiment. Additionally, rumors regarding his potential reappointment are also worth monitoring.

It is important to be cautious, as the market often buys expectations and sells facts. If the expectations for a rate cut have been fully priced in before the event, some profit-taking funds may choose to exit after the news breaks, leading to short-term selling pressure. Therefore, the closer we get to the decision moment, the more calm one should remain, and it might be wise to primarily adopt a wait-and-see approach to reduce blind operations.

In my opinion, market trends often brew direction in silence. The current market is like a bowstring pulled tight; once the news becomes clear, the volatility is likely to increase. Maintain patience, manage your positions well, and wait for the trend to speak for itself.

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