The 'expected fulfillment' in the crypto world is never like boiling a frog in warm water — it's like a firecracker that explodes at the slightest spark.
Tonight at 11:57, I was staring at the 4-hour chart of ETH, the cigarette butt almost burning my hand. The price at 3388 is stuck before the Fibonacci resistance level at 3422, and the RSI at 89 is like a red-hot needle, even the sell orders in the order book are revealing 'nervousness.' Half an hour ago, I was joking with my friends in the circle saying, 'Tonight it will either explode long or explode short,' but when I saw the CME Fed rate cut probability soaring to 92%, I secretly moved my stop loss from 3200 to 3350 — veterans understand, this kind of 'obvious good news,' the main force will never let retail investors comfortably pick up chips.
At exactly 12 o'clock, the Federal Reserve's decision pop-up appeared, and I immediately pressed the 'buy more' shortcut key: 'a 25 basis point rate cut, the dot plot suggests 3 rate cuts next year.' As soon as I finished reading this line, the buy price of ETH jumped directly from 3388 to 3400, and the resistance level at 3422 couldn't hold for even 10 seconds. When the price touched 3450, I was staring blankly at the volume bar — the trading volume of that 4-hour K-line was 2.3 times that of the previous one. This is not retail investors chasing high; it’s institutional 'market orders' swallowing the sell orders.
Do you remember the SOL case I talked about with you last week? At that time, SOL was also overbought + resilient before the interest rate decision, and the result was a direct 20% surge after the decision was made — but today ETH is even more brutal, breaking through 3400 in 5 minutes and directly exploding 12,000 shorts in the 3400-3450 range. This is not luck; it’s a 'double explosion of fundamentals and news': A few days ago, after the Fusaka upgrade, ETH's gas fees were cut by 40%, and the number of new addresses increased by 190,000 in one day, which indicates 'real users are entering the market.' Tonight's 'dovish rate cut' from the Federal Reserve is like setting fire to this pile of dry grass. I added half a position at 3300 this morning, and I’m now up nearly 5 points, but my palms are sweating — it’s not fear of profits; it’s that this surge is too 'wild,' and even the main force didn't give the shorts a chance to close their positions.
But I have to pour a bucket of cold water: the buy orders at 3450 are still piling up, but the sell orders near 3500 have already accumulated 15,000 units, which is 'old investors taking profits.' I plan to reduce half of my position at 3500, with the remaining stop-loss set at 3400 — it’s not that I’m scared; it’s a hard rule in the crypto world that 'after the frenzy, there must be a correction.' After last year's upgrade in Shanghai, ETH also experienced a '5-minute breakout through the resistance level,' but the next day it directly retraced 5%. This wave of 'flying high' is essentially a 'peak of expectations being fulfilled,' not the end of the market.
However, there is a detail that needs to be mentioned: the on-chain data just showed that there was an 8000-unit spot buy order at 3422 that hasn't been withdrawn, indicating that institutions are 'locking in positions' — which means they don't plan to exit in the short term. In comparison to last week's BTC crashing through 90,000, ETH had 23,000 units of support at 2900. The current trend is clearly 'the main force grabbing the knife and stabbing the shorts.'
Twelve years in finance, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the crypto world: Insight into the market, steady progress. Pay attention to how the Master teaches you to steadily increase value; in investment, risks and opportunities coexist. Blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
