The pin is not the market betting on size, but the main forces are harvesting the 'greedy ghosts' - This wave of ups and downs on Wednesday completely confused the retail investors chasing highs and cutting losses!
Yesterday, Wednesday, the cryptocurrency circle directly staged a 'thriller blockbuster': BTC first plummeted from 94000 to 91500, then quickly pulled back to 93800, with a pin of 2500 points. The contract market was filled with wailing, and the double explosion of long and short positions exceeded 1.8 billion U. Many fans in the community shouted 'can't hold on anymore', and some said 'just finished cutting the short position and it surged, just chased the long position and it plummeted', completely led by the main forces.
I had anticipated this spike - I reminded everyone a few days ago that 'before the Federal Reserve meeting, the market will surely throw surprises,' and the main force is using the news vacuum period to wash out positions with spikes. Before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2023, a similar market behavior occurred: BTC spiked 3000 points in a single day, with more than 2 billion U in liquidations, and after the washout, it directly began a rally of 20000 points. The current situation is no different: on one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve still exists, and funds are not willing to leave easily; on the other hand, retail investor sentiment is unstable, and the main force is taking the opportunity to clean up floating positions with spikes to pave the way for the subsequent market.
My core viewpoint is very clear: Wednesday's spike is the 'last washout', and the direction is becoming increasingly clear - the bullish trend has not been broken. Look at the technical indicators: BTC, although it had a spike, did not break the key support level of 91000, the EMA30 moving average on the daily chart is still upward, and the MACD golden cross pattern has not dissipated; it has only seen a short-term top divergence, which is a normal correction. Looking at the on-chain data, there are a large number of whales buying around 91500, and large transfers of over 1000 BTC have increased by 1.5 times, indicating that the main force has not sold off but is secretly accumulating at low levels.
Here’s a real case: in June 2024, BTC also performed 'up and down spikes' before a critical meeting, leading to a double blow of 1.5 billion U, causing many retail investors to cut losses and exit. As a result, after the meeting, BTC surged from 80000 to 95000, and those who cut losses could only watch the market soar helplessly. The logic of the current market trend is completely consistent with that time - the main force creates panic through spikes, prompting retail investors to give up cheap chips, and then directly lifts the market after the news settles.
To speak from the heart: those who make big money in the crypto world are never the ones who panic during spikes but those who can withstand the washout and see the trend clearly. During this spike on Wednesday, the old members in my community did not move because they knew 'the trend hasn't broken, and the washout is an opportunity.' In contrast, those new traders chasing highs and cutting losses lost half a month's profit in a single day, which is the cost of not understanding 'trend is king.'
The upcoming market trend is simple: as long as BTC stabilizes above 93000, it will push towards 95000; if it retraces to 91000, it will be an excellent buying opportunity. After the Federal Reserve meeting concludes, the expectation of liquidity easing will further ferment, and mainstream coins like BTC and ETH will experience another wave of significant market movements.
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