ZEC broke 450 this time, is it a "trap set for retail investors" by institutions? The surge of small coins is no accident — ZEC today broke 450, and institutions have sharpened their 'scythes' waiting for retail investors to dive in.
This morning, I opened the 4-hour chart, and the old fans should have sensed something: ZEC dropped from 594 at the end of November to 301, and now in the past few days, it has been skyrocketing to 450 as if it was launched by a rocket, directly stepping on the "horizontal resistance level of 430-440" — this is clearly not market-driven; it’s obviously a script written by institutions. Let me give you some insider information for today: Coinbase announced last night that it will "launch ZEC spot trading on December 15," this news didn't trend, but whales started buying up 3 days in advance. From December 7 to 9, ZEC's on-chain large transfers (single transactions over 100 coins) quadrupled, among which the address "bc1q3..." hoarded 8600 coins in one go. This is exactly like the "pre-buying frenzy" before UNI's listing on Binance in June 2024, when UNI surged from 4 dollars to 8 dollars because institutions had previously acquired 2 million coins at the bottom.
Let's analyze the 'killing pig details' of this wave of trends. You see that K-line on December 2nd, which 'spiked to 301'; at that moment, 120 million shorts exploded in an hour and then bounced back to 350 — this is not something retail investors can catch; it's Grayscale's 'bait': first smashing the market to force retail investors to cut losses, then using large funds to collect all the chips. This kind of 'first killing shorts then pulling up' operation, I saw in SOL back in 2022 when Grayscale bought 5 million units at 8 USD and then it rose to 22 USD, earning them 700 million. Now, ZEC's institutional holding ratio has reached 28%, and after these chips are locked up, the circulating supply directly decreases by one-third, making the cost of pulling up lower than drinking mineral water.
Let's talk about the technical aspects of the 'clear card kill'. Right now, ZEC's 4-hour RSI is at 83.17, and some say 'it's overbought and will pull back' — don't joke, when ZEC broke 500 in October 2023, the RSI was at 91, and it continued to rise. You see the Bollinger Bands just opened, and the K-line is above the upper band; this is called a 'trend continuation gap', plus the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (430 USD) has already become a firm bottom. Breaking 450 today is the 'acceleration signal'. Here's a personal opinion from the master: ZEC will definitely break 480 tonight; any shorts trying to touch it are just asking for trouble — when ZEC rose from 280 to over 600 in April 2024, it followed this rhythm: after breaking key resistance levels, it rose 40% within 48 hours, and back then, the shorts blew up 800 million. Tonight, this scenario is about 90% likely to replicate.
What's even more ruthless is the 'capital rotation logic'. Today, both BTC and ETH have risen to a point of stagnation, and the hot money in institutions has nowhere to go, so they can only look for 'stagnant small coins' — ZEC, as the leader in privacy coins, has risen 27% less than BTC this year, and now it's a 'catch-up dragon'. Plus, with a high probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve tonight, as liquidity eases, the elasticity of small-cap coins is 3 times stronger than that of large caps. ZEC's circulating market cap is only 2.3 billion USD, and an institutional investment of 100 million can pull it up by 20%; this is much more cost-effective than pushing BTC.
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: I have been in the crypto space for 8 years and have seen too many retail investors perish in the 'acceleration period of small coins' — either too afraid to chase or chasing at the peak. ZEC's current wave is a threefold buff of 'institutional lock-up + news catalyst + technical short squeeze'; breaking 480 tonight is a certainty, and any shorts coming in now are no different from jumping into a fire pit with their eyes closed.
Tonight, I will be monitoring ZEC's 'large transactions' in the community; as soon as it breaks 480, I will tell everyone to take profits — in the crypto space, earning money through understanding is a thousand times more reliable than betting on luck.
A twelve-year financial journey, the exclusive secrets of pioneers in the crypto space: insight into the market, steady progress, and pay attention to the master teaching you how to steadily appreciate value. In investing, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto space!
