#ZEC After the main downward wave, it has fallen into the 390-450 range for consolidation. Short-term wait-and-see, long-term short positions strategy firmly executed. ZEC has staged a single-day drop of 24% since the beginning of December, and the main downward wave has temporarily paused. It is now officially entering the sideways consolidation phase of 390-450 USD. From the 4-hour K-line chart, recent trading volume has continued to shrink, the MACD histogram is gradually narrowing, and the forces of both bulls and bears are in a stalemate. Although the KDJ indicator is in the overbought range, it has not formed a clear golden cross or death cross signal, which completely matches the typical characteristics of a consolidation. In this kind of market where prices are “unable to rise or fall,” blindly going long or chasing short positions in the short term is undoubtedly a high-risk operation, purely sending transaction fees to the market, which is meaningless.

My long-term strategy remains steadfast, and the core logic has never changed: as long as ZEC rebounds above $450, I will continue to roll over and extend my short positions. It is important to note that ZEC has fallen from its previous high of $750, and the overall downward structure has not been broken. On-chain data shows that whales have begun to sell off their holdings in batches at high levels, and the long-term downward trend is clear. Once the price falls below $200, I will gradually close most of my long-term short positions; while within the oscillation range of $390-$450, I will strictly maintain a wait-and-see attitude, never acting lightly to avoid being disrupted by short-term fluctuations.

Currently, the short-term hot money in the market is crazily flocking to small-cap targets like MAXI, with some varieties recently experiencing an increase of over 10 times. Although the probability of these cryptocurrencies peaking is extremely high from the perspective of valuation and capital flow, extreme upward spike patterns often appear in the top area, luring retail investors to chase high prices. What needs to be more vigilant is that most of these small altcoins have not yet launched spot trading, and the funding fee is charged every 1-4 hours, making them suitable only for extremely short-term bets and completely unsuitable for long-term positions—once a top oscillation forms, if held for half a month, the funding fee alone could consume half of the principal. In contrast, ZEC has a mature spot contract market, with the funding fee charged every 8 hours. Currently, due to a lack of short-term capital attention, the rate has returned to a positive rate, allowing for earning dozens of U per day just by holding long short positions, far exceeding the cost-effectiveness of various small altcoins.

These small altcoins that surge in the short term emerge in large batches every month during bull and bear cycles, but the high returns inevitably hide deadly risks. Short-term speculators pursue super high returns with high leverage but often overlook the potential liquidation crisis— even if someone is lucky enough to roll their tens of thousands in principal into millions or tens of millions through short-term operations, a single mistake with high leverage can lead to a total loss. After years of grinding in the crypto circle, I have seen too many traders who achieved contracts worth tens of millions ultimately fall due to greed and aggressive operations, ending up with nothing.

In fact, in the high-risk market of contracts, the most critical factor is not who makes more in the short term, but who can survive longer in the market. I have been engaged in contract trading for many years and have never experienced a liquidation, with only a few minor stop-loss experiences. The core secret is to always prioritize risk control: keep the total position strictly within three layers and primarily operate with small positions; the operational logic is also highly focused, only laying out short positions around short-term surges and large altcoins with market capitalizations reaching tens of billions or even hundreds of billions. The number of contract varieties traded in a year is very limited, and I never blindly follow short-term hot spots.

In the future, my focus remains clear: I am only interested in laying out long short positions on small altcoins that surge 5-10 times and have market capitalizations exceeding tens of billions. Such quality opportunities do not appear often throughout the year and are likely to concentrate during the rebound of the big B wave next year. Currently, after the main downtrend, there will be no such targets during the oscillation period. At this stage, I will continue to hold long short positions in BTC, ETH, and ZEC, patiently waiting for the opportunity to roll over ZEC once it rebounds above $450, calmly following the trend— in the crypto world, only by steadily surviving can one earn long-term money.