During sideways markets, retail investors panic and sell at a loss, while institutions sneak in to profit — today, with ETH breaking 3050, this move is like a 'free ticket' for the retail investors from the institutions, and hitting 3400 tonight is a sure thing.
This morning, staring at the 4-hour chart of ETH, I couldn't help but laugh: it has been fluctuating between 3049-3131 for the past few days, while a bunch of retail investors are shouting 'It's going to drop, it's going to drop.' As soon as it broke 3050, it shot straight up to 3368 — this is clearly not a natural market movement, but rather a 'short squeeze script' written by institutions. Let me give you some solid news from today: Grayscale dumped 110 million dollars last night, buying 28,000 ETH around 3050, which is the largest single buy in the past week; coupled with the 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates tonight, once liquidity eases, ETH, as the market leader, has three times the elasticity of BTC, it would be unreasonable not to rise this time.
Look at the technicals: RSI has long shown a bottom divergence — the price hasn't made a new low, and RSI jumped from 52 directly to 88, which is solid evidence of 'selling pressure being exhausted'; the MACD histogram has shrunk to near the zero axis, and KDJ has formed a golden cross at a low position and is turning upwards. These three indicators together signal that 'bulls are about to explode.' I, Zhang Tianshi, have been in the crypto world for 8 years, and the wave when ETH rose from 2800 to 3600 in October 2024 was exactly this same combination of indicators. At that time, I called for retail investors to enter at 3000, and it eventually rose to 3600, earning 20%. Now this wave has even stronger indicators, and the upward trend will only be more intense.
Here's my ironclad viewpoint: After ETH breaks 3050, 3400 is the minimum target and will be reached tonight. Think about it, ETH's circulating market value is only 200 billion, and institutions can push it up by 5% with 1 billion. Currently, the short position ratio is still high; as long as it breaks the previous high of 3397.5, it will inevitably trigger a chain reaction of short squeezes, and by then, it will rise so much that even the shorts will be left with nothing. The wave when ETH rose from 1800 to 2400 in 2023 was exactly the combination of 'breaking down + short squeeze.' At that time, shorts lost 1.2 billion, and tonight's scenario, I can guess with my eyes closed.
Let me speak from the heart: The money made in the crypto world is never about 'gambling on size,' it's about 'understanding the institutions' hidden cards.' These past few days of ETH's sideways movement is just a deliberate 'false drop' created by institutions, waiting for retail investors to cut their losses before directly pushing the price up to force a short squeeze — I've seen too many retail investors panic and cut losses at such times, only to turn around and watch the market surge while they regret.
In 2022, when SOL dropped to 9 dollars, I also called for everyone to enter the market based on the logic of 'indicator divergence + institutional buying.' In the end, it rose to 100 dollars, a tenfold increase; now for this wave of ETH, the logic is even stronger than before: institutional holdings are more concentrated, the news catalysts are clearer, and the technicals are stronger.
Lastly, to be honest: Tonight, if ETH breaks 3400, it is a certain trend. If the shorts come in now, it's no different from jumping into a fire pit with eyes closed. I have already told everyone in the community to enter around 3100, and if it breaks 3400 tonight, I'll call for profit-taking — in the crypto world, being with the right people, your little capital can grow exponentially.
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