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BaidenCyrus
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JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says the 4-year #
Bitcoin
cycle might be dead, and we may see a supercycle 🚀
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BaidenCyrus
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BITCOIN'S DIRTY SECRET: THE HALVING NEVER MATTERED After 16 years and 4 halvings, the data is finally conclusive. Every single post-halving rally in Bitcoin history coincided with major central bank liquidity events. Not one can be isolated. - 2012 halving: Cyprus banking crisis. - 2016 halving: Post-QE environment, ICO boom. - 2020 halving: Fed balance sheet doubled to $9 trillion. - 2024 halving: ETFs front-ran it. Price peaked BEFORE the event. The correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 money supply: 0.94. The correlation between halvings and price with only 4 data points: statistically meaningless. August 2024 proved everything. Bank of Japan raised rates 0.15%. Bitcoin crashed 25% in 72 hours. One billion dollars liquidated. 300,000 traders wiped out. That was not a halving. That was liquidity. But here is what nobody is discussing. Transaction fees represent 1 to 4 percent of miner revenue. The block subsidy funds 96 percent of network security. Every halving cuts that subsidy in half. Princeton University research conclusion: "No proof-of-work currency has ever operated solely on transaction fees." Satoshi himself hedged: "There will PROBABLY always be nodes willing to process transactions." Probably. We are 95 percent through Bitcoin's issuance schedule. 29 halvings remain. The people who will witness the 20th halving have not been born. The halving provides scarcity. Liquidity provides price. The fee transition remains completely unresolved. US debt: $38 trillion. Fed ended QT: December 1, 2025. Gold all-time high: $4,371. The next liquidity wave is coming. Watch the central banks. Not the block height. The four-year cycle is dead. The monetary experiment continues. The existential question remains unanswered. This is not bearish. This is not bullish. This is what the evidence actually shows. $BTC
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#BNB 🔥🔥
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🚨 THE FED RATE CUT DECISION IS COMING TOMMOROW. The market already expects a 95% odds of 25 BPS rate cut. That part won’t move the markets much but the real volatility will come from liquidity signals like Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on how they see the economy, funding conditions, and inflation. There’s been clear liquidity stress in the system. SOFR has been spiking, showing banks are feeling funding pressure. Because of this, banks are expecting the Fed to announce some form of liquidity relief even a small one, to ease the stress. If the Fed hints at QE, or providing short term liquidity support, it becomes bullish immediately: • Funding pressure drops • Bond yields go down • Risk assets gets bullish momentum The tone tomorrow will matter more than anything else. During the last FOMC, Powell sounded hawkish and BTC dumped hard. This time, there are 2 scenarios going into tomorrow's FOMC. Hawkish cut: 1. Powell says inflation is still not fully under control 2. Says the labor market is improving → In the case, yields will spike and risk assets could dump. Dovish cut: 1. Powell says tariff impact on inflation is minimal 2. Says the labor market is still weak → In this case, yields will go down, liquidity expectations will rise and crypto could pump And if Powell adds even a hint of liquidity support on top of a dovish cut? That’s where things can flip bullish really fast. So the roadmap is simple: • Dovish + liquidity support → Bullish for markets • Dovish only → Small pump • Hawkish cut → Market sell-off similar to October • No liquidity help → Markets will continue sideways price action
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Big Week Ahead For Crypto Holders 🚨 ▫️ 9th December: JOLTs Job Openings data will be released. ▫️ 10th December: The FOMC interest rate decision and Powell's press conference will happen. ▫️ 11th December: Initial jobless claims, PPI, Core PPI and OPEC monthly report will be released. ▫️ 12th December: The Fed balance sheet will be released, and 3 Fed speakers will deliver a speech. The most important one is obviously the FOMC interest rate decision. A 25 BPS rate cut is almost locked, with Polymarket showing odds of 93%. All eyes will be on Powell's press conference, as his thoughts and remarks on the economy will decide the next move. $BTC #FOMCWatch
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