$BTC is hovering around $92,600, and market momentum has entered a deeper correction zone. CryptoQuant's composite index has fallen to 0.72, the lowest level since April 2025, indicating that the market is in a "pessimistic/correction" zone. If this indicator further falls below 0.75, short-term holders may accelerate profit-taking, and the price may test the support level of $87,500.

The macro environment has intensified the pressure. The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has weakened, and insufficient liquidity combined with a decline in risk appetite has driven the sell-off. Meanwhile, whale accounts' short positions have exceeded long positions, and ETF funds have seen a net outflow for several weeks, further undermining market confidence. Demand for downside protection in the options market has risen, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards the year-end market.

Technically, if the composite index breaks above 1.0 again, market momentum will turn positive, with potential target ranges between $150,000 and $175,000, in line with the trends of 2017 and 2021. Currently, $93,000 is seen as a key support level, and if it falls below this, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. Nevertheless, institutional buyers like MicroStrategy are still actively positioning, reinforcing the market logic that "deep corrections often give rise to new highs."

Conclusion/Insight: Bitcoin still faces insufficient liquidity and macro uncertainty in the short term, but the $87,500 support range may become a key observation point. If the market stabilizes here and liquidity improves, the possibility of a year-end rebound still exists. Investors need to pay attention to Federal Reserve policies and ETF fund flows, as this will determine whether $BTC can break free from its current weakness.

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