Interest rate cut decision in less than 24 hours! Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window, is the 90,000 threshold for Bitcoin an opportunity or a trap? $BTC
With only 24 hours left until the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, Bitcoin has rebounded from 87,000 to 92,000 under the expectation of an interest rate cut, but it is stuck at a key resistance level that is hard to break. The market has formed a 100% consensus on a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and this 'clearly favorable news' actually hides risks — the core logic of the crypto market is 'expectation difference.' When good news is anticipated in advance, it may trigger a 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' correction. Just like last week when the market dropped to 87,000 dollars, causing extreme panic, I clearly called for a long position in my community, pointing out that it was a golden pit, and the market proved my viewpoint by rebounding for a whole week. Many community members also profited from this wave of upward trend. This time, I will be bearish for the following reasons:
Current rebound foundation is weak:
Firstly, hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve are rising; Powell has previously hinted that an interest rate cut is not a done deal. If the decision statement leans towards caution, the overly hyped easing expectations will collapse instantly;
Secondly, there is insufficient funding support; ETF and fund capital has begun to withdraw, the market order book is thin, and liquidity is weak, making large sell orders likely to trigger a flash crash;
Thirdly, the technical outlook is under pressure; the 93,000-95,000 range is the previous rebound high, forming a strong resistance level.
The operating strategy is clear: the preferred shorting area is set at 93,000-95,000. If the price rushes to this range and shows weakness in the rise and shrinking trading volume, it will be a better entry timing; the initial target is the recent low of 88,000, and if it breaks below, it can further look down at the core support of 85,000-86,000. One must be cautious of the risk of short-term volatility; if the short position hits the stop loss, wait for the next opportunity.
It should be emphasized that my bearish outlook does not deny Bitcoin's long-term value, but rather targets the overly hyped interest rate cut benefits and the current unaddressed market risks. The short-term decline is actually a process of digesting risks and nurturing new entry opportunities. One must respect the market cycle and strictly control positions to act accordingly #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储降息 #加密圈平头哥