When there is little time left for a Federal Reserve decision, markets tend to enter:
🔹 Phase of “moderate repositioning”
It is not a rally, but rather a slight accumulation:
Small but stable increases (0.5%–3% in large tokens).
Institutional capital inflow or “whale flows” that anticipate future volatility.
Reduction of sales and scheduled purchases by bots that detect lower supply.
⭐ Why are the whales moving now?
Because they do not wait for the decision:
they position themselves beforehand, when liquidity is cheaper and risk is 'less discounted'.
Whales operate under 3 hypotheses:
✔ 1. The probability of a cut or pause is mostly already 'priced in'
Even if the market expects a rate cut, large traders try to enter before the major movement occurs.
✔ 2. They bet on the 'post-FOMC effect'
Historically, after an FOMC:
If the Fed does not surprise negatively, risk assets tend to bounce.
Even if they do not cut rates, just that the language is not 'aggressive' can already boost crypto.
✔ 3. They do not seek an immediate rally — but rather early exposure
That is why there are slow but positive movements.
⭐ Why there is not a big rally yet
Perfectly normal. These are the typical reasons:
🔸 There is still no certainty about the tone of the FOMC
The market fears:
that the Fed says cuts are delayed
or that they maintain a hawkish (hard) discourse
Traders do not want to go all-in without clarity.
🔸 Bots and HFT stop large movements
Moderate increases are often swept by:
arbitrage bots
market-making functions
defensive institutional liquidity
🔸 Whales accumulate without moving the price
When they really enter, they use:
OTC
iceberg orders
TWAP/VWAP
That is why there are no giant candles, but rather:
increase in volume
reduction of supply in spot
larger buy orders sunk in the order book
⭐ So... what does this behavior mean?
These signals often indicate:
👉 1. Expectation that the decision will not be aggressive
The market would not act this way if it expected:
strong rate hikes
or a very restrictive speech
👉 2. Intelligent accumulation, not FOMO
What you see is rational, slow, orderly.
It is not a retail pump, but institutional positioning.
👉 3. Pre-phase to a strong movement (but does not guarantee direction)
In the history of the crypto market pre-FOMC:
60% of the time there is a rally after the FOMC if the Fed holds or lowers rates.
40% of the time there is a drop if the speech is aggressive.
⭐ macro–crypto reading summarized
What is being seen is expected before the FOMC:
Small increases → ✔
Whale entry → ✔
More volume in BTC, ETH, SOL → ✔
Movement without a rally → ✔
Positive but moderate bias → ✔
This suggests a market that expects a neutral or slightly dovish FOMC, but is still not willing to trigger a serious rally until hearing from Powell.
