12.10
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM on the 11th is highly likely to result in a 25 basis point cut, with a focus on the dot plot and Powell's speech.
25 basis point cut: 88%
No rate cut: 11%
50 basis point cut: 1%
The biggest news yesterday was that the United States agreed to sell Nvidia H200 to China, which signifies the continuation of the honeymoon period between the two countries, temporarily alleviating concerns about US-China trade issues, and Trump can still take a 25% cut; in addition, the rising job vacancies indicate that the US economy may not be as bad as previously thought.
Moreover, for the cryptocurrency industry, innovation has already begun; today, federally regulated banks in the US are officially allowed to conduct risk-free principal cryptocurrency transactions, meaning banks can now take on some of the work of exchanges to provide cryptocurrency trading. Although this may reduce some exchanges' revenues, it is a positive development for the industry. After all, banks are essentially regulated exchanges.
BTC
Bitcoin rebounded quickly yesterday but did not stabilize above the critical level of 93900. However, the bottom at the four-hour level is gradually rising, so the key focus going forward is whether this position will continue on the daily level, in both the main chart and the secondary chart. To continue, it must stabilize above 93900. In summary, as long as it does not break 90,000, it will still oscillate upwards, with support at 90950-90000 and resistance at 93900-97000.
ETH
Ethereum's rebound this time is relatively strong. From the current market perspective, there may be a minor pullback at a smaller level, but the pullback will not be significant. The key focus today is the 3200 mark; as long as it does not break below, it will continue to oscillate upwards. Therefore, the recent market fluctuations will be relatively large, so one should be sensitive to market changes, and pay attention to whether the news tonight can drive the continuation of the market. Support at 3200-3140, resistance at 3360-3430
