Let's first state the conclusion: the market is bullish.
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Last night, the market quickly surged from around 90,000 to around 95,000, with Ethereum and most altcoins following suit with a rapid rebound, igniting market enthusiasm while also liquidating some short positions. As for why the market was able to rebound quickly, I also looked at last night's U.S. stock market performance, which was mostly sideways, and I reviewed last night's news and have not yet found any news that could impact the market trend. Therefore, I believe it is more influenced by the upcoming interest rate decision and Powell's speech, or possibly unannounced news.
Tonight, the latter half of the night will be what we focus on the most, especially the content of Powell's speech. At that time, the market will also be quite volatile and may even impact the U.S. stock market. Be cautious of risks and it is recommended to wait until Powell finishes speaking before trading.
Currently, the ETF spot fund dynamics are as follows: BTC net inflow of $287 million, ETH net inflow of $142 million, SOL net inflow of $16.6 million. From the trading volume of institutional funds, it can be seen that the short-term outlook is relatively optimistic, as well as the short-term bullish sentiment.
In the current liquidation map, we can see that BTC, ETH, and SOL have a relatively higher concentration of long positions, indicating that the market is mainly bullish. However, it should be noted that we have entered a liquidation risk zone for long positions, as it is evident from the recent price movements that there have been repeated liquidations of both long and short positions. Be cautious of a rapid decline that could liquidate some long positions before a rebound.
With the interest rate decision and Powell's speech approaching, the overall market movement during the day is relatively stable, while volatility will increase in the evening. The strategy given is more about short-term trading strategies during the day.
BTC short-term volatility range 90,000-93,000
ETH is relatively stronger, short-term volatility range 3,200-3,400
SOL short-term volatility range 133-141
Short-term contract trading strategy:
Go long on BTC at 91,500 or buy on dips, increase position at 90,000, and take profits in batches at 93,500.
Go long on ETH at 3,280 or buy on dips, increase position at 3,200, and take profits in batches at 3,380.
Go long on SOL at 136 or buy on dips, increase position at 133, and take profits in batches at 141.
Friendly reminder:
1. Stop-loss suggestions should be set according to your actual liquidation price and the amount of loss you can bear.
2. Don't be greedy; it's better to take a small loss than to resist a position. If the direction is correct, continue to hold.
