The December Federal Reserve meeting you are concerned about has shifted its core focus from "whether to cut rates" to "decision-making divergence." Although the market generally expects a third consecutive rate cut, the intense clash between hawks and doves within has made this meeting the most challenging for consensus during Powell's tenure.

• Fundamental contradiction: Inflation resilience and employment risks. Although inflation has fallen from its highs, the September CPI year-on-year is 3%, and core PCE remains at 2.8%, both exceeding the 2% target. Meanwhile, signs of a slowing job market are evident, with some officials worried that excessive tightening could impact the economy.

• Meeting highlights: Rare dissenting votes and future signals. It is expected that the FOMC vote may see multiple dissenting votes, which is very rare in recent Federal Reserve meetings. Therefore, what is more critical than a 25 basis point rate cut is the degree of voting divergence, which may weaken policy signals and raise market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence.

• Future path: Divergence may continue. Powell's term will end in May 2026, and popular successor Hassett is inclined toward low interest rates. However, the complex power structure of the Federal Reserve means that policy shifts will not happen overnight, and deep conflicts surrounding interest rates may persist. The wording of this meeting's statement and the latest economic forecasts will reveal how the Federal Reserve seeks to find the next balance between combating inflation and stabilizing employment. #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐 #