There are several scenarios:
1. The four-year cycle is still valid. The bear market has just started for two months and will drop until October 2026. The big coin will certainly not keep falling after breaking 60,000. There will be rebounds in between, falling 20-30% and rebounding 10-20%, then continuing to fall (probability 70%)
2. The four-year cycle weakens, and the big coin market follows the US stock market. I haven't researched how the US stock market behaves, but in the past, it has always reached new highs. Of course, there have been sharp drops during times like the pandemic or tariffs, but those were quickly recovered afterward (probability 30%)
3. Two small cycle rules that I have observed: rise for 4 months, fall for 4 months, rise for 4 months, fall for 4 months, perfectly corresponding to the weekly level of the market (probability 20%)
4. Altcoins peak in December 2025. It has been a full year now, and altcoins may have bottomed out. The trends of altcoins and the big coin Ethereum have diverged; the sources of funding are different now. The funds for the big coin and Ethereum come from US stock ETFs and institutions, while altcoins come from the native crypto circle and speculators, leading to a weakened correlation (probability 10%).
Note: The probabilities for scenario 1 and scenario 2 add up to 100%. Scenarios 3 and 4 should be integrated into scenarios 1 and 2 and not counted separately.
#加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH $BNB
